On September 16, 1991, the Philippine Senate voted to reject the renewal of the U.S.–Philippines Bases Agreement. The decision was celebrated as a triumph of sovereignty, a casting off of colonial chains at Subic and Clark. Thirty-three years later, however, the reckoning is less triumphant and far more sobering. What was billed as “independence” may in fact have been one of the costliest mistakes in modern Philippine history.
The Economic Price was Immediate
Tens of thousands lost their jobs when Clark and Subic shut down. Local businesses—from jeepney drivers to factory suppliers—collapsed overnight. The U.S. was prepared to inject billions in rent, aid, and infrastructure upgrades. Instead, the Philippines got empty runways, rusting hangars, and the slow conversion of Subic into an industrial park that only partly made up for the devastation. The promise of progress was exchanged for economic dislocation.
The Security Price Was Even Steeper
By closing the bases, the Philippines also closed the door to one of its strongest deterrents. Within four years, China seized Mischief Reef in the Spratlys, exploiting the power vacuum. Our underfunded armed forces, still flying Vietnam-era helicopters and sailing World War II ships, had nothing with which to push back. The symbolism of nationalism had cost us the substance of security.
Geopolitically, the Philippines Surrendered its Leverage
For nearly a century, the country was the United States’ most strategic outpost in Asia. By rejecting the bases, we forced Washington to pivot to Singapore, Thailand, and Australia. The Philippines—sitting at the very throat of the South China Sea—was suddenly reduced to a bystander in a game it once anchored.
We traded centrality for irrelevance, only to beg for a return through the Visiting Forces Agreement in 1999 and Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement in 2014. By then, Beijing’s artificial islands were already rising from the sea.
The Sovereignty Argument, in Hindsight, Rings Hollow.
Other nations host U.S. bases on their soil without being reduced to colonial wards. Japan has allowed tens of thousands of American troops on Okinawa for decades, yet remains the world’s third-largest economy and an unmistakably sovereign power. South Korea, with nearly 30,000 U.S. troops stationed there, has grown from war-torn ruin into a technological and cultural giant.
Even Germany, the beating heart of the European Union, hosts over 35,000 American personnel, yet dictates EU policy from Berlin, not Washington. These countries demonstrate that sovereignty is not weakened but rather strengthened when backed by credible security guarantees.
By contrast, the Philippines chose to conflate nationalism with isolation, waving the flag as the bases shut down. The result was a hollow sovereignty: we kept the symbols but lost the substance. A nation is not less sovereign because it has allies; it is less sovereign when it cannot defend its own seas, cannot secure its own resources, and cannot guarantee prosperity for its own people.
"Magnificent 12"
Looking back, the Senate’s “Magnificent 12” voted with their hearts, but perhaps not with their heads. Sovereignty is precious, but sovereignty without security and prosperity is a hollow boast. A country may wave its flag, but a flag cannot stop missiles nor feed the jobless.
Today, as Chinese coast guard vessels train their water cannons on our resupply missions to Ayungin Shoal, the irony is brutal: we are once again calling on the United States, pleading for joint patrols, security guarantees, and a return of the very presence we once expelled.
In 1991, we told the Americans to leave. Now, in the shadow of a rising China, we realize too late: it was not the Americans we had evicted, but our own future.
No comments:
Post a Comment