Introduction
In the past few decades, China's ambitions in the South China Sea (SCS) have grown increasingly evident, marked by a relentless pursuit of territorial expansion. Through the construction of artificial islands, the buildup of the world's largest naval fleet, and the strategic deployment of paramilitary maritime forces, China has asserted claims over vast areas of the SCS.
These actions have not only hindered neighboring nations' access to their exclusive economic zones (EEZ) but have also stirred a broader sense of unease and resentment globally. With the recent release of a 10-dash line "standard map" aimed at tightening its territorial claims, China seems to be doubling down on its coercive tactics. However, these aggressive maneuvers may be driving a wedge between China and the rest of the world, as more nations begin to view Beijing not just as a regional hegemon, but as a global bully.
China’s Coercive Tactics: A Recipe for Global Resentment
China's approach to asserting dominance in the SCS has been characterized by a myriad of coercive tactics that often blur the line between diplomacy and aggression. Employing what has been termed 'grey zone' tactics—actions that fall short of outright warfare but are aggressive enough to intimidate and harass—China aims to secure its regional hegemony. This strategy, embodied in the Chinese proverb ‘Kill the chicken to scare the monkey,’ serves as a stark warning not only to the directly affected nations but to the entire region. The message is clear: challenging China's claims could lead to severe consequences.
These tactics are not confined to the SCS. Countries far beyond the immediate region, including the United States, Japan, and even Canada, have found themselves on the receiving end of China's assertive maneuvers. Risky encounters between Chinese forces and those of other nations are becoming increasingly common, leading to heightened tensions and a growing sense of unease about China's intentions. China's aggressive stance is causing many nations to reassess their foreign policies, pushing them closer together in opposition to Beijing’s expansionist agenda.
Regional Coalition
Kelly Grieco, a Senior Fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program, suggests that the prospects for building a regional coalition to counter Chinese aggression are significantly higher in the SCS than in the Taiwan Strait. This is because the countries involved see China's infringements on sovereignty in the SCS as directly linked to their national security interests. The increase in activity around Taiwan is viewed by many as a precursor to how China might escalate its coercive tactics in other regions, leaving nations to search for ways to rebalance their standing against what is increasingly perceived as a regional—and potentially global—bully.
The Global Impact of China’s Bullying Behavior
The territorial disputes in the SCS are not new, but China's increasingly aggressive tactics have elevated these conflicts to new heights. China’s coast guard has harassed, chased away, blocked, and occasionally attacked Vietnamese and Philippine fishermen within their EEZs. These actions, often executed by unmarked civilian vessels of China's maritime militia, are frequently backed by the China Coast Guard, which claims to be enforcing Chinese law and territory. This pattern of behavior is not isolated to the SCS; similar tactics are being employed against nations and entities worldwide that are perceived to threaten China's expanding influence.
The implications of China’s aggressive behavior extend far beyond the immediate region. Nations that might have once been ambivalent about China’s rise are now increasingly wary, viewing Beijing's actions as a threat not just to regional stability, but to global order.
China's Disregard for International Norms
The growing list of countries that have experienced confrontations with China—whether in the SCS, the East China Sea, or elsewhere—reflects a broader trend of international resentment towards Beijing's tactics. The cumulative effect of these encounters is that China is increasingly seen not as a responsible global power, but as a nation willing to disregard international norms to achieve its strategic goals.
This shift in perception is significant. As more countries begin to view China’s actions as a direct challenge to their sovereignty and security, there is a growing consensus that something must be done to counter Beijing’s ambitions. This sentiment is not limited to the governments of the affected nations; it is also reflected in global public opinion, with increasing numbers of people around the world viewing China as a hostile power. This growing enmity could have far-reaching consequences for China’s global standing, potentially isolating it on the world stage and undermining its long-term strategic objectives.
The Role of the United States and Other Maritime Nations
In response to China's aggressive tactics, the United States and other maritime nations have stepped up their efforts to support the SCS nations and counter Beijing's influence. The U.S., in particular, has played a pivotal role in coordinating regional and international responses to China’s actions. US Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro has highlighted the importance of naval diplomacy in strengthening the network of security alliances and partnerships that the U.S. has cultivated over decades. This approach, often referred to as integrated deterrence, involves a combination of military presence, strategic partnerships, and diplomatic engagement to counter China's influence in the SCS.
Southeast Asian nations have also received significant support from other maritime powers, including Australia and Japan, who have invested in cooperative engagements and security initiatives across the region.
Rotation of Maritime Patrols by Like-Minded Nations
As countries like the Philippines and Vietnam increase their joint patrols in the SCS, there is a growing opportunity for the U.S. to enhance these efforts by coordinating a continual rotation of ships to patrol alongside like-minded nations. This U.S.-led initiative would not only provide additional maritime capabilities but also serve as a clear signal to China that its aggressive tactics will not go unchallenged.
The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) has also played a critical role in building the capacity of Southeast Asian maritime security forces. By rotating the deployment of cutters and sharing best practices in maritime security with countries like the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, and Australia, the USCG is helping to strengthen the region’s ability to assert its sovereignty. This sustained engagement has the potential to enhance the organic capabilities of these nations, allowing them to better resist China’s coercive tactics.
However, the U.S. Navy (USN) faces challenges in adapting to the evolving security environment in the SCS. While the USN is the world’s premier “blue water” navy, the SCS nations are seeking “green water” maritime support to address the unique challenges posed by China's grey zone tactics. To better support these nations, the USN must consider how its independent deployers can receive dedicated “green water” maritime security training. Additionally, the USCG could establish a detachment in the Pacific theater, rotating crews to USN ships to enhance maritime law enforcement operations and provide specialized training to Southeast Asian partners.
China’s Global Image Problem
As China continues to assert its claims in the SCS and beyond, it risks alienating more and more countries. The release of Beijing’s new 10-dash line map has drawn widespread condemnation from the international community, exacerbating tensions in the region and beyond. Southeast Asian nations, supported by international allies, are increasingly standing up to China’s coercive tactics, creating significant pressure on Beijing to reconsider its approach.
The global backlash against China’s actions is not just a matter of diplomatic friction; it reflects a broader concern about the kind of global power China intends to be. Countries around the world are asking whether China will respect international norms and the sovereignty of other nations, or whether it will continue to pursue its goals through bullying and intimidation. The answer to this question will have profound implications for China’s future role on the world stage.
Conclusion
China’s aggressive tactics in the SCS are not just about territorial disputes; they are part of a broader strategy that is increasingly being viewed with suspicion and hostility by the international community. As more countries experience the brunt of China’s coercive behavior, there is a growing consensus that Beijing is earning the world’s enmity. This global backlash could have significant implications for China’s strategic ambitions, potentially isolating it from the very international system it seeks to dominate. If China continues on its current path, it may find that its quest for regional hegemony has come at the cost of global friendship and cooperation.
Sources:
Aguilar, M. (2024, August 28). U.S. taking a twofold stand vs. China’s bullying in South China Sea: Coast guard admiral. Philippine Star. https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2024/08/28/2381211/us-taking-twofold-stand-vs-chinas-bullying-south-china-sea-coast-guard-admiral
Blinken, A. J. (2021, July 11). Overwhelmed by Chinese fleets Filipino fishermen ‘protest and adapt’. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/11/world/asia/philippines-south-china-sea-fishermen.html
Grieco, K. (2023, November 17). Philippines military accuses China of bullying and vows to continue South China Sea missions. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/17/philippines-military-accuses-china-of-bullying-and-vows-to-continue-south-china-sea-missions
Nobody likes a bully: China’s grip over the South China Sea is slipping. (2023, November 15). 9DashLine. https://www.9dashline.com/article/nobody-likes-a-bully-chinas-grip-over-the-south-china-sea-is-slipping
Sugimoto, A. (2024, August 28). China keeps testing the limits of its aggression. Time. https://time.com/6302515/china-philippines-south-china-sea-aggression/
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