Turning Tides: The 2025 Philippine Midterm Elections and What They Reveal

 Introduction

The 2025 Philippine midterm elections have emerged as a pivotal moment, significantly reshaping the nation's political landscape. Amid economic anxieties, evolving voter sentiments, and shifting alliances, the results have pointed to important changes and enduring challenges in Philippine democracy. The following analysis outlines the most significant developments and their implications for the nation's future.

1.  The Marcos Administration's Waning Influence

The midterm elections drastically reduced President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s political standing. His alliance won barely half of the contested Senate seats, indicating declining endorsement power and public frustration with unfulfilled promises and economic concerns. The drop in popularity signals a possible political deadlock, hampering his ability to carry out legislative initiatives.

The outcome of the midterm elections reflects general dissatisfaction with President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s handling of the economy. Voters took issue mainly with high food prices and swelling debt.

Aside from the underperformance of his senatorial candidates, the following signs show President Marcos' waning influence: the rise of opposition candidates, the growing divide between him and Vice President Sara Duterte,  and the latter's impressive performance in the South, with five of her endorsed candidates winning Senate seats. 

2. Sara Duterte's Resurgent but Regionalized Influence

As stated, Vice President Sara Duterte's political movement achieved notable success, securing five Senate seats, most of which came from Mindanao, particularly Davao. However, poorer performances in other areas reflect a significant regional disparity. This result may bolster arguments for federalism or increased regional autonomy.

However, the term "Solid South" has gained popularity, referring to the Cebuano-speaking areas that comprise Sara Duterte's jurisdiction. 

We may remember that in the 2022 Philippine national elections, Sara Duterte secured the vice presidency with a record-breaking 32,208,417 votes, accounting for 61.53% of the total votes cast. This not only marked the highest number of votes ever received by any candidate for a single office in Philippine history but also surpassed the 31,629,783 votes (58.77%) garnered by her running mate, Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr., in the presidential race.

3. Strengthened Opposition and Independent Voices.

The elections revealed strong voter support for opposition and independent candidates, including prominent figures like Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan. This trend underscores growing voter dissatisfaction with traditional politics and the Marcos administration, potentially paving the way for greater political pluralism and accountability.

The recent elections in the Philippines showed strong voter support for opposition and independent candidates due to several factors:

• Dissatisfaction with Traditional Politics: The country's personality-driven elections, where candidates focus on charisma rather than policy platforms, have led to a desire for alternative voices. Voters are seeking leaders who prioritize development goals over personal interests.
• Patronage System and Money Politics: The deeply-rooted patronage system in the Philippines has bolstered money politics, especially during elections. Some candidates engage in vote buying, while others misuse public service delivery for electoral purposes. This has led to a growing protest vote against traditional politicians.
• Desire for Accountability: With many poor Filipinos motivated by material benefits in exchange for votes, there's a growing demand for leaders who prioritize long-term development goals over short-term personal gains. Voters want leaders who are accountable to the people, not just their patrons.
• Shift Away from Traditional Party Loyalties: Philippine political parties are often non-ideological and focused on generating support from all sectors of society. This has led to a rise in independent candidates who are not beholden to traditional party loyalties.
• Protest Vote: The robust performance of opposition and independent candidates serves as a protest vote against the current administration and traditional politicians. Voters are seeking change and new voices in politics.

4. Political Dynasties Continue To Dominate

The recent Philippine midterm elections saw political dynasties maintain their significant dominance, with around 80% of MPs coming from influential families. This raises concerns about democratic inclusion, government transparency, and socioeconomic disparities. The persistence of dynasties can be attributed to their access to government resources, financial superiority, and established networks. These advantages enable them to outspend and outmaneuver smaller parties and independent candidates.

The lack of effective campaign finance regulations has also contributed to the dynasties' continued grip on power. Without strong laws to prevent the misuse of wealth and influence, dynasties can exploit these advantages to secure votes. Additionally, voter vulnerability, particularly among poorer families, makes them susceptible to vote buying, a practice that has become more prevalent in recent elections.

The entrenched power structures of dynasties in local politics further solidify their dominance. With 113 out of 149 city mayors belonging to families with multiple members in elected positions, it's clear that dynasties have a strong hold on local governance. The limited ideological differences between parties also make it easier for dynasties to switch allegiances and maintain power, perpetuating their dominance in Philippine politics.

5. Increased Women's Political Participation

The election results revealed growth in women's political representation, with more women obtaining governor and congressional seats. However, women's participation remains disproportionately low, demonstrating that institutional hurdles to greater female political involvement exist.

Women's participation can be attributed to a few key factors: increased voter turnout among women, the rise of women in political dynasties, and the impact of the Party-List Law. Additionally, the "Pink Movement" and other political movements have also played a role in empowering women and encouraging their participation in politics. 

Women have consistently demonstrated higher voter turnout rates than men in Philippine elections. This suggests a strong desire among women to participate in the democratic process and influence policy decisions. 

While political dynasties can sometimes limit independent women's entry into politics, they can also serve as a stepping stone for women to enter the political arena, according to the UP Center for Integrative and Development Studies. The Party-List Law also provides a mechanism for women to gain representation in the legislature, especially when party politics is based on principles rather than personality. 

The "Pink Movement," which gained momentum around Leni Robredo's 2022 presidential run, has demonstrated that women can be influential figures in political mobilization. These movements also create space for women to participate in discussions and become more politically active. 

The Philippine government, through the Local Government Code and other legislation, has made efforts to promote women's representation in local and national politics. These efforts, combined with international mandates, have helped create a more conducive environment for women's political participation.

6. Progressive Candidates' Use of Social Media to Level Playing Field

Progressive politicians supported by groups like Akbayan had significant success, especially in metropolitan areas and along the Lingayen-Lucena corridor. Their successes indicate increased support for progressive changes, which might influence future policy decisions, especially in areas like as social justice, poverty reduction, and the environment.

Akbayan party list nominee Atty. Chel Diokno told the media that while they anticipated receiving many votes, they did not foresee achieving such a high initial tally.

He expressed genuine surprise, emphasizing that the early results greatly exceeded their expectations. Although they had hoped for significant voter support, the actual numbers were far beyond what they had anticipated.

When asked about factors that contributed to their strong initial showing, Diokno attributed it largely to their campaign strategy. He specifically highlighted the effectiveness of their social media campaign, which, in his view, significantly leveled the playing field.

Chel Diokno attributed their successful initial showing in the election to a strategic combination of grassroots campaigning and extensive media outreach, particularly through social media platforms. He emphasized that groups like Akbayan traditionally face significant disadvantages in mainstream media due to limited resources, which restrict their visibility compared to well-funded opponents.

However, Diokno pointed out that social media offered an effective alternative, providing a more equitable environment where resource limitations could be offset by creativity and engagement. This digital approach allowed them to directly connect with voters, significantly boosting their campaign's reach and effectiveness despite financial constraints.

Ultimately, Diokno asserted that their determined use of social media compensated for traditional media disadvantages and demonstrated the potential of digital platforms to level the electoral playing field, empowering resource-limited groups to achieve unexpected electoral success.

7. Sara Duterte's Impeachment Complexity and Political Alliances

The election results have hindered President Marcos' efforts to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte. With considerable Duterte supporters in the Senate, the requisite two-thirds vote for impeachment conviction is questionable. This issue highlights deeper political differences, which might lead to political instability and changing alliances ahead of the 2028 presidential race.

The 2025 midterm elections in the Philippines have complicated efforts to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte in several ways: 

• Uncertain Senate Vote: The elections changed the composition of the Senate, which will act as the impeachment court. Since a two-thirds vote is required for conviction, the new Senate lineup will significantly impact Duterte's fate. With 12 May 2025 midterm election results showing a shift in the Senate's membership, it's uncertain how the senators will vote.
• Potential Delay in Trial: The change in Senate leadership and membership may affect the impeachment trial, originally scheduled to begin in July 2025. Senate President Francis Escudero mentioned the trial would commence after President Marcos' State of the Nation Address.
• Duterte's Alliance-Building Efforts: Vice President Duterte has been building alliances and endorsing senatorial candidates, which some lawmakers view as an attempt to influence potential senator-judges. This move could potentially sway the outcome of the trial.
• Strong Evidence, But Unpredictable Outcome: Despite strong evidence gathered against Duterte, the outcome remains uncertain due to the changed Senate composition. La Union 1st District Rep. Paolo Ortega V believes the evidence is strong but acknowledges that senator-judges will ultimately decide based on their accountability to the people.
• Impeachment Trial Timing: The trial's timing in the wake of the election results has created uncertainty and potential constitutional grey areas. Some argue the trial should proceed immediately, while others believe it should wait for the new Senate lineup.

Overall, the midterm elections have added complexity to the impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte, making the outcome harder to predict.

8. High Voter Turnout, Reflecting Increasing Citizen Political Engagement

Political engagement is the participation of people in the selection and sanctioning of government officials, including running for office themselves. Political engagement encompasses citizen activities as voters, as current and future contenders for leadership positions in government, and in organized organizations that push elected politicians and appointed public officials via civil society activity and public demonstrations.

Appreciated in the above context, the recent elections augur well for Philippine democracy. The elections had a record voter participation rate of more than 82%, indicating increased public involvement and knowledge of the election's importance. This growth demonstrates the electorate's active involvement and may lead to continued civic engagement and demand for government accountability.

• Increased public engagement: More individuals are actively interested in the electoral process, signaling a growing awareness of the significance of their vote.
• Awareness of the elections' impact: The high turnout likely reflects a more profound understanding among voters of how the elections will influence the country's future and the policies that will be enacted.
• Active citizenship: The record voter participation rate shows a robust sense of civic responsibility among Filipinos, with many citizens exercising their right to choose their leaders.

Overall, the high voter turnout is a positive indicator of a healthy democracy, suggesting that citizens are invested in the electoral process and are actively shaping the country's future.

9. The Marcos Brand is Losing Its Shine

The Marcos brand, once thought to be a political talisman that enabled the Marcoses to return to power after the ignominy of EDSA, is losing its shine. The magic is fading. Imee Marcos' meager 12th-place finish in the senatorial race serves as a perfect indicator.

We can attribute Imee's poor showing to the following factors:

• Youth Voter Influence: Younger voters turned out in large numbers for the 2025 elections, with Millennials and Generation Z accounting for 60% of the electorate. Many in this group supported "KiBam" slate candidates, including Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, who won Senate seats. This change indicates an increased preference for alternative political narratives over old dynasty politics.
• Imee's Departure from the Administration Slate: Initially part of the administration-backed Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas, Marcos withdrew from the slate in March 2025 following the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte. She expressed discomfort with the alliance's direction and opted to run as an independent candidate.
• Imee Marcos’s alliance with the Duterte faction may have weakened her appeal among some voters. After leaving the administration coalition, she gained endorsements from Sara Duterte and Robin Padilla. However, this alignment may have backfired in areas critical of Duterte’s policies—such as Quezon City, Makati, Baguio, Iloilo, Bicol, and Negros—where issues like extrajudicial killings and authoritarianism have made the Duterte brand divisive, particularly among academics, religious groups, and progressives. These liabilities may offset gains in Duterte's strongholds like Davao and parts of Mindanao.

As the Philippines moves toward the critical 2028 presidential elections, these dynamics will undoubtedly shape not just political outcomes but the broader trajectory of the country’s political development.

Going forward, the country's political well-being will rely significantly on tackling economic concerns, improving transparency, promoting inclusive representation, and sustaining strong civic engagement. 

The 2025 midterm elections are a landmark in Philippine politics, revealing significant changes in voter preferences, alliances, and political involvement. These elections have exposed both long-standing structural issues and new prospects for transformation. 

References

Commission on Elections. (2022). "National and local elections 2022 results". https://comelec.gov.ph

GMA News Online. (2025, May 13). "Midterm Elections 2025: Duterte Allies Secure Senate Seats Amid Shifting Political Tides." https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/

Philippine Statistics Authority. (2024). "Philippine Population and Demographics." https://psa.gov.ph

Rappler. (2025, May 12). "2025 Midterm Elections: Summary of Results and Political Shifts". https://www.rappler.com

Senate of the Philippines. (2025, May 17). "Composition and reorganization of Senate after 2025 midterms". https://senate.gov.ph

University of the Philippines Center for Integrative and Development Studies. (2023). "Political Dynasties and Gender Representation in the Philippines". https://cids.up.edu.ph

World Bank. (2024). "Philippines economic update: Overcoming Economic Headwinds." https://worldbank.org

The High Price of Electing Incompetent Senators in the Philippines

Each election cycle, Filipinos have the crucial responsibility of choosing their leaders, especially those entrusted with the hallowed task of crafting laws and shaping national policy—the senators. 

As May 12, 2025, nears, the country once again teeters on the edge of a costly mistake—where name recall and celebrity may once more outweigh competence, qualifications, and sound judgment.

For this is the sad fact: when we elect senators who are more famous than capable, as we have done so since heaven knows when, the real cost to our nation goes far beyond simple disappointment; it translates into lost opportunities, squandered resources, and stalled progress.

Opportunity cost, simply put, refers to the potential benefits or positive outcomes we lose when choosing one alternative over another. In electing senators based primarily on their fame, charm, or wealth rather than legislative competence, we sacrifice the possibility of effective governance and thoughtful policy-making. 

Instead of rigorous discussions and innovative solutions, we are left with shallow debates and superficial rhetoric that fail to address pressing national issues.

Take, for instance, the missed opportunities in healthcare reform, poverty alleviation, education, and environmental protection. Many talented and qualified Filipinos, genuinely passionate about public service, are forced to watch from the sidelines because they lack celebrity appeal, extensive financial resources, or widespread popularity. 

These capable individuals could offer fresh, effective ideas, yet their potential contributions remain unrealized, causing the nation to miss out on critical legislative innovations.

Financially, electing incompetent senators carries substantial costs. Legislative inefficiencies, delays, and misguided projects drain precious public resources. Poorly conceived laws and ineffective governance strategies stall economic growth, resulting in higher burdens on taxpayers. 

This wastage is a direct result of electing individuals ill-equipped to navigate complex policy challenges, leading instead to costly mistakes and mismanagement.

As we approach the upcoming May 12 elections, the troubling pattern of celebrity-driven politics seems poised to repeat itself ad nauseam. Candidates lacking substantial legislative skills yet bolstered by their entertainment credentials, financial might, or social media influence threaten to continue the cycle of incompetence. 

This scenario is not just frustrating—it actively undermines national progress and discourages skilled, dedicated individuals from pursuing public office.

Addressing this crisis requires immediate, collective action. We must cultivate a political culture that prioritizes merit, integrity, and genuine public service over superficial appeal. Robust voter education programs, transparent electoral processes, and stringent campaign finance reforms can help level the playing field. 

By choosing candidates based on competence and commitment rather than popularity or wealth, we ensure that the Senate becomes a place for meaningful discussions, groundbreaking legislation, and genuine national development.

Ultimately, the price of electing incompetent senators is far too high. The responsibility rests on us—the voters—to make informed choices. Let us commit to electing leaders who can truly serve the nation’s best interests, ensuring a brighter and more progressive future for the Philippines.

Filipino and English Can Coexist: Why We Should Strengthen Both

In the ongoing balancing act between Filipino and English, national language advocates often argue that the widespread use of English undermines Filipino identity. However, this debate misses the real problem: the Philippine government’s indecision and lack of strategic vision have stalled both languages.

Filipinos have invested decades in English, not just in school, but in the workplace, diplomacy, overseas employment, and global culture. For millions, English is no longer a “foreign” language but a professional and reasoning tool as natural and spontaneous as Tagalog. Our BPO industry, OFW competitiveness, academic research, and startup ecosystem all run in English. Ignoring this reality in favor of idealistic hopes about language and nationalism is not only inefficient—it’s irresponsible.

Meanwhile, Filipino, largely based on Tagalog, remains stagnant. The government talks about it extensively as the “national language,” but does little to develop it into a language of science, law, or innovation. It thrives in conversation, media, and cultural expression—precisely where it is most at home—but stagnates in formal and academic use. Worse, the consequence of policy confusion is a generation that is less fluent in both English and Filipino.

Some argue that promoting English threatens national identity, but countries like India and Singapore prove the opposite. Both have embraced English as the language of education, business, and science without losing touch with their culture essence. 

India, despite its colonial past, has used English to empower its citizens, enhance its literature, and unify a linguistically diverse population. 

Singapore, on the other hand, through deliberate bilingual education, has turned English into a bridge between communities while preserving native languages like Malay, Tamil, and Mandarin. In both nations, English fluency and cultural pride coexist—and even strengthen one another.

It’s time we stop treating this conundrum between English and Pinoy identity as a zero-sum game. We can affirm Filipino identity while mastering English. We must. Global competitiveness now relies on precise, articulate, and confident English, especially in science, technology, international relations, and economics. Countries like India and Singapore have demonstrated that cultural pride and English fluency can coexist, even reinforce one another.

The Philippines should take the cue.

1. Reaffirm English as the primary language of instruction in science, mathematics, law, and commerce. These fields demand clarity, precision, and access to the latest global knowledge, most of which is published in English. By using English as the main language in teaching in these areas, we ensure that Filipino students and professionals are prepared to compete internationally and engage with the best available resources and research.

2. Invest in training teachers in English proficiency, particularly in public schools. Teacher fluency directly impacts student fluency. Strengthening English skills among teachers, especially in public schools where resources are often limited, ensures fair access to good education and helps bridge the language gap between elite and marginalized communities.

3. Let Filipino flourish organically in its natural domains—arts, media, and culture—without artificially forcing it into technical areas where it is not yet equipped. Filipino excels in emotional, cultural, and everyday expression, and it should be nurtured in these fields where it naturally thrives. Forcing it prematurely into specialized academic or technical domains without careful planning and development risks creating confusion rather than progress and undermines both languages in the process.

Language is a tool—but it is also a weapon. In a fast-changing and competitive world, the nations that thrive are those that use language powerfully not just to preserve identity but to shape global discourse, lead innovation, and unlock economic power. 

Holding on to old divisions between English and Filipino and between globalism and nationalism does nothing but hold us back. The truth is, being fluent in English doesn’t make us any less Filipino—it expands, adapts, and asserts our national character more powerfully on the world stage. We don’t need to fear English; we need to own it—with confidence, competence, and purpose.

It’s time for the government to stop hedging and start leading. Make English mastery a national priority, not an afterthought. Equip every Filipino—not just to speak to the world, but to lead it.