Assessing the Lame Duck Prospects of President Bongbong Marcos

In democratic systems, a lame duck is typically a political leader who, while still holding office, has lost the authority, public support, or legislative backing necessary for effective governance. 

This status is often associated with the final months of an incumbent's term, particularly following an election loss. However, it can also result from a significant decline in political capital caused by unpopular decisions, broken coalitions, or electoral defeats. 

In the Philippine context, President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. could face such a predicament if certain developments arise in 2025. These are:  if his controversial decision to surrender former President Rodrigo Duterte to the International Criminal Court (ICC) causes further popular resentment, and this anger  translates to the defeat of the candidates he has endorsed in the May 12, 2025 midterm elections.

In other words, Marcos Jr. faces a significant risk of becoming a political lame duck during the final three years of his presidency, weakened by diminished influence and limited legislative support. This would leave him increasingly unable to advance key policies or implement meaningful reforms, further undermining his administration’s effectiveness and legacy.

The Duterte imbroglio is essential in this situation. Despite the end of his term some 33 months ago (at the time of this writing), Duterte's popularity has endured, especially in Mindanao and among conservative Filipinos. 

Suffice it to say that Duterte is still a powerful presence in national politics. Millions of Filipinos, especially OFWs, view him as a champion of law and order.

True enough, after Marcos Jr. cooperated with the ICC and handed Duterte over to face charges related to his "War on Drugs," the political fallout was severe. 

Marcos has not only faced backlash from Duterte loyalists but has also been accused of capitulating to Western institutions—an accusation that has historically carried dire political consequences in the Philippines.

Marcos Jr.'s decision has irreparably split the UniTeam coalition. With Duterte loyalists mobilizing against Marcos Jr. and with Rodrigo Duterte's daughter, Vice-President Sara Duterte emerging as the new opposition leader, Marcos Jr. has found himself increasingly isolated.

Midterm elections in the Philippines usually serve as a referendum on the incumbent president. A strong showing by administration-backed candidates indicates healthy public support. Conversely, a poor performance indicates weakening political strength and lends itself to a hostile legislature. 

If Marcos's senatorial slate, grandiosely named "Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas" falls short in the 2025 elections, it would reflect a decline in public confidence. It would also be an ominous handicap on his legislative agenda. A Senate dominated by opposition figures could block bills, delay appointments, and launch investigations.

In this scenario, Marcos Jr., who has yet to demonstrate legacy-defining leadership two years and eight months into his term (at the time of this writing), may find governance more reactive than proactive. He might have no choice but to shift from executive-driven policymaking to a presidency where political survival becomes the top priority.

The term "lame duck" may originate from Western systems, but its dynamics are not new in Philippine political history. Presidents such as Fidel V. Ramos and Benigno C. Aquino III both experienced declining influence in their final years due to unstable allegiances and political problems. Marcos Jr.'s case might be unique due to how quickly this decline might unfold—barely three years into his term.

Furthermore, Philippine politics is deeply clientelistic. Loyalty from legislators and local officials pivots on access to resources. If these trapos perceive a president as weak, the Philippine political elite frequently shift their loyalties. This parasitic political class is pragmatic—loyal when a president serves them, disloyal when a president does not.

The consequences would be troublesome if Marcos becomes a lame-duck president by mid-2025. First, weakened executive leadership could result in political instability. Second, critical political reforms—including the shift to federalism, electoral system improvements, anti-corruption measures, judicial reforms, and legislation against political dynasties—would likely stall, perpetuating existing structural problems.

Finally, both domestic and international actors could exploit the resulting leadership vacuum. Internationally, China might become increasingly assertive in its territorial claims over the West Philippine Sea, sensing a weakened Philippine leadership. Domestically, powerful local political dynasties could capitalize on the situation by further consolidating their autonomy and expanding their influence, potentially undermining national governance.

While Marcos will remain in office until 2028, his capacity to govern may not last as long. The surrender of Duterte to the ICC and a midterm election debacle could rapidly erode his power. Under these circumstances, Marcos would typify a modern political lame duck—still in office but without effective control.

References

International Criminal Court. (n.d.). Philippines and the ICC. Retrieved from https://www.icc-cpi.int/

Rappler. (2023, July 24). Duterte remains most trusted national figure – Pulse Asia. Retrieved from https://www.rappler.com/

The Philippine Star. (2025). Marcos allies face tough battle in 2025 midterm polls. Retrieved from https://www.philstar.com/

ABS-CBN News. (2024). Sara Duterte signals independence from Marcos camp. Retrieved from https://news.abs-cbn.com/

An Implicit Caste System? Unveiling the Philippines' Hierarchical Social Structure

The Philippines, despite its democratic and capitalist appearances, maintains an implicit, undeclared caste system. This system, while not formally recognized as in India, exhibits notable similarities, particularly in terms of social mobility and inherited social status. Historical influences, socio-economic disparities, and racial heritage all contribute to this persistent, regressive, yet often unacknowledged social stratification.

Historically, Philippine society was significantly shaped by pre-colonial caste structures and Indian cultural influences. Maritime trade networks connected the archipelago with Indianized kingdoms such as Srivijaya and Majapahit, spreading Hindu and Buddhist cultural elements that subtly influenced its social undercurrents. Although not adopting the explicit rigidity of India's caste system—characterized by hereditary roles strictly limiting social mobility—the Philippines retains an underlying structure that copies the latter.

These pre-colonial structures became more entrenched during Spanish colonial rule. The Spaniards imposed hierarchical classifications similar to a caste system. Distinct socio-economic roles emerged for Peninsulares (Spaniards born in Spain), Insulares or Creoles (Spaniards born in the colonies), Mestizos de Español (Spanish-Filipino individuals), and Mestizos de Sangley (Filipino-Chinese individuals). 

These categories shaped privileges, opportunities, and life trajectories, significantly shaping social forces and reinforcing long-term inequalities by privileging mestizos over native Austronesians (Indios) or indigenous groups (Negritos) (Corpuz, 1997).

The legacy of these historical stratifications is visible in contemporary Philippine society, particularly among the wealthy elite class. Influential families, such as Zóbel de Ayala, control key economic sectors like finance, real estate, and telecommunications, significantly reinforcing the socio-economic gap. Their concentrated resources perpetuate the implicit caste system by limiting social and economic opportunities for those outside their elite circles (Zóbel de Ayala Family, n.d.).

Economic disparities sharply delineate this elite from the impoverished majority. Poor Filipinos, both rural and urban, remain trapped in cycles of poverty similar to India's Dalit class—the "untouchables".  They face systemic barriers to education, nutrition, and career advancement (Asian Development Bank, 2009).

The similarity of the Philippine poor to the Indian poor extends to the Tagalog language. The Tagalog word "dalita", which means abject poverty, most probably is inspired by the ancient name of India's Dalit class.

Education particularly demonstrates this stratification; those from affluent backgrounds and who are well-educated secure prestigious occupations, while poorer individuals with inferior or little education typically remain confined to low-paying jobs (David & Albert 2015)

Despite entrenched disparities, the Filipino middle class has notably expanded from 28.5% in 1991 to nearly 40% in 2021, indicating increased economic opportunities and potential mobility (Albert, 2024). 

Nevertheless, this emerging middle class remains vulnerable to economic shocks, highlighting the need for sustained economic policies and robust social protections. 

The growth of the Filipino middle class underscores both the resilience and fragility within the implicit caste system, reflecting potential pathways toward greater equity, social integration, and sustained economic stability

Additionally, caste-like distinctions persist between Filipinos of mestizo heritage and those of purely indigenous descent. 

Historically advantaged by better connections and greater opportunities, mestizos continue to benefit from subtle social biases, which influence contemporary social interactions and perceptions (Rodriguez, 2010).

The Chinese Filipino community further complicates this caste landscape. Characterized by economic prominence yet occasional socio-political marginalization, their ambiguous status arises from historical, economic, and geopolitical complexities (Minority Rights Group International, 2021; Frontiers, 2022). 

This ambiguous position stems significantly from historical contexts dating back to the Spanish colonial period. Initially engaged in trade and commerce due to colonial restrictions that barred them from owning land, Chinese Filipinos gradually established influential economic niches, particularly in retail, banking, and manufacturing sectors. 

Over generations, their wealth accumulation led to perceptions of economic dominance, fostering resentment among segments of the Filipino majority and causing periodic tensions. (Chua, R. T. 2021)

Furthermore, geopolitical factors, particularly relations between China and the Philippines, frequently exacerbate their socio-political marginalization. Escalations in territorial disputes in the South China Sea or controversies involving Chinese investment in the Philippines often provoke suspicion or nationalist backlash against Chinese Filipinos. 

Consequently, despite their economic prominence, they periodically experience societal alienation and political scrutiny, highlighting the complex interplay between ethnicity, nationalism, and economics in contemporary Philippine society. (Hau, C. S. 2014)

Similarly, Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs), widely celebrated for their economic contributions through remittances, occupy a socially ambiguous space—economically critical yet frequently marginalized socially—highlighting nuanced challenges related to identity, social integration, and equitable recognition within the implicit caste structure (Parreñas, 2001)

In conclusion, the Philippines exhibits a subtle yet complex, implicit caste system deeply rooted in historical, economic, racial, and emerging social dynamics. Recognizing and addressing these underlying divisions is essential for genuinely fostering social mobility, equality, and societal cohesion. 

Policymakers and civil society must prioritize wide-ranging development, equitable access to quality education, and transparent governance to dismantle entrenched social barriers. 

Only through sustained collective effort aimed at comprehensive reform can the Philippines hope to move beyond its implicit caste structures towards a more genuinely equitable and inclusive society.

References

Albert, J. R. G. (2024). The Middle Class in the Philippines: Growing but Vulnerable. ISEAS Perspective.

Asian Development Bank. (2009). Poverty in the Philippines: Causes, Constraints, and Opportunities. Asian Development Bank.

Chua, R. T. (2021). Chinese and Chinese Mestizos of Manila: Family, Identity, and Culture, 1860s-1930s. Brill.

Corpuz, O. D. (1997). An Economic History of the Philippines. University of the Philippines Press.

David, C. C., & Albert, J. R. G. (2015). Recent Trends in Education in the Philippines. Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

Frontiers. (2022). Chinese Filipinos: Perceptions and Contributions. Frontiers in Political Science.

Hau, C. S. (2014). The Chinese Question: Ethnicity, Nation, and Region in and Beyond the Philippines. NUS Press.

Jocano, F. L. (2001). Filipino prehistory: Rediscovering precolonial heritage. Punlad Research House.

Minority Rights Group International. (2021). Chinese – Philippines. Minority Rights Group.

Parreñas, R. S. (2001). Servants of globalization: Women, Migration, and Domestic work. Stanford University Press.

Rodriguez, R. M. (2010). Migrants for export: How the Philippine State Brokers Labor to the World. University of Minnesota Press.

Zóbel de Ayala family. (n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved March 25, 2025, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z%C3%B3bel_de_Ayala_family

How Rodrigo Duterte Helped Bongbong Marcos Become President

When he was president, Rodrigo Duterte's populist posturing resonated strongly among voters tired of traditional politics. He then positioned himself as the decisive alternative.  His administration was characterized by controversial yet popular moves, allowing him considerable freedom to reshape the country's political dynamics.

Duterte won the Philippine presidency in 2016 by running as a tough-talking populist, vowing to crush crime and illegal drugs. Once in office, he launched a brutal nationwide “war on drugs” that led to thousands of deaths, mostly of poor suspected drug users and not so poor drug pushers. 

Despite international condemnation, Duterte remained enormously popular domestically, reshaping alliances and marginalizing the traditional opposition. 

Bongbong Marcos, who narrowly lost the vice-presidential race to Leni Robredo, contested the results, alleging fraud without conclusive evidence. 

However, Marcos' remained in the public eye, and this enabled him to position himself strategically for future political leverage.

Marcos Jr.'s claims resonated with his supporters, further polarizing public opinion. As mentioned, his consistent presence in the media allowed him to maintain political relevance despite his electoral loss.

On November 18, 2016, Duterte authorized the burial of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. at the Libingan ng mga Bayani, sparking widespread protests due to Marcos Sr.'s human rights abuses and corruption during his dictatorship. This decision symbolically rehabilitated the Marcos legacy, paving the way for the Marcos family's return to higher political prominence.

It must be noted that by 2016, the Marcos family had already established a firm political foothold in the country after being allowed to return in November 1991 by President Corazon Aquino. 

Imelda Marcos had been a congressional representative, Imee Marcos had served as governor of Ilocos Norte, and Bongbong Marcos had completed a term as senator after previously serving as Ilocos Norte governor. These positioned the family for broader political objectives.

The burial was conducted rather privately and discreetly, but it still sparked widespread public protest due to Marcos's controversial legacy as a former dictator associated with human rights abuses and corruption.

Critics argued that the burial diminished the memory of those who suffered under martial law. Supporters, however, viewed it as a necessary step towards national reconciliation. 

Politically, it was the inflection point for the Marcos restoration process as it completed the rehabilitation of the Marcos family brand. 

Social media played a crucial role, amplifying narratives favorable to the Marcoses. The Marcos family leveraged this environment to gain even more public sympathy.

The alliance between Duterte and the Marcoses was strengthened with reciprocal support. 

Duterte’s demonization of opposition figures and disrespect for democratic norms facilitated some historical reassessment that portrayed Marcos Sr.’s dictatorship positively, adding to the Marcos family's political rehabilitation and resurgence.

Imee Marcos’s Senate victory in 2019 marked the family's highest political achievement since their return from exile. This victory signified a clear shift in public acceptance and tolerance towards the Marcoses.

Duterte's overwhelming success in the 2019 midterm elections weakened the opposition, allowing pro-administration and Marcos-aligned figures such as Imee Marcos to enter the Senate. This political landscape provided the Marcoses with substantial institutional leverage.

The complete defeat of 'Otso Diretso' highlighted the electorate’s disenchantment with the Liberal Party (LP) led opposition. This outcome underscored the effectiveness of Duterte’s political strategy. 

The opposition was effectively marginalized, as "Otso Diretso" candidates all failed to win Senate seats.

In 2022, Bongbong Marcos and Sara Duterte-Carpio formed a powerful alliance, running as president and vice president. 

Their campaign effectively utilized Duterte’s popularity, leveraging social media to reshape perceptions of the Marcos regime, culminating in broad electoral appeal. 

Their joint campaign significantly benefitted from the existing Duterte political infrastructure. This partnership effectively unified the supporters of both political dynasties, consolidating their power bases.

The massive scale of their victory indicated strong voter endorsement of Duterte-era policies and style. It also demonstrated the profound impact of coordinated messaging and digital propaganda on electoral outcomes.

Marcos Jr. won the presidency in 2022 by an unprecedented margin (31.6 million votes or 58.77%), signaling the culmination of Duterte’s political realignment efforts. 

Sara Duterte-Carpio also won decisively (32.2 million votes or 61.53%), ensuring the continuity of Duterte’s influence and validating the strategic alliance between the two dynasties.

Marcos Jr.’s presidency represents a dramatic turnaround for a family previously associated with authoritarianism and corruption. This resurgence reflects both Duterte's legacy and a broader global trend toward populist leadership.

Duterte’s presidency profoundly reshaped Philippine politics, facilitating the resurgence of the Marcos dynasty. Through strategic alliance-building, overpowering of the opposition, and shrewd handling of public discourse, Duterte set the conditions that enabled Bongbong Marcos Jr.’s successful return to power, redefining the prevailing political narrative.

Betrayal in The Hague: Marcos Jr.’s ICC Gamble and Its Dire Repercussions

President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr.’s decision to bring former President Rodrigo Duterte before the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague for alleged crimes against humanity related to his anti-drug campaign has sparked deep outrage and division within the Philippines. This move, rather than serving the cause of justice, undermines the sovereignty of the nation and discredits its judicial system. More importantly, it demonstrates an egregious lack of gratitude and moral responsibility from Marcos Jr., considering Duterte’s pivotal role in the Marcos family's political resurgence.

The Case for the Philippine Justice System

Rodrigo Duterte’s anti-drug campaign was a cornerstone of his administration, and any allegations of human rights abuses should have been addressed by the Philippine courts, not an international tribunal. The nation possesses a functioning and robust judiciary—flawed as it may be, yet fully capable of conducting legal proceedings. By bypassing the Philippine justice system, President Marcos Jr. has essentially declared it untrustworthy, an affront to the courts, justices, judges, lawyers, and legal professionals who work tirelessly within its framework.

The Philippines is not a failed state. Unlike nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the ICC frequently intervenes due to judicial collapse, the Philippine courts remain active and operational. The decision to extradite Duterte sends an insulting message—that the country’s legal institutions are inadequate to handle its own affairs, a notion deeply offensive to the legal community and the broader Filipino public.

Marcos Jr.’s Lack of Gratitude and Political Betrayal

Beyond the judicial implications, this move exposes President Marcos Jr.’s moral bankruptcy. It was Duterte who enabled the Marcos family’s return to political prominence. A defining moment in this process was Duterte’s approval of the reburial of former President Ferdinand Marcos Sr. at the Libingan ng mga Bayani, a move that contributed significantly to the restoration of the Marcos name. To now discard Duterte—an elderly statesman in frail health—by allowing his extradition is nothing short of political betrayal.

Filipino culture places immense value on utang na loob, or debt of gratitude. By disregarding this principle, Marcos Jr. risks alienating not only Duterte’s supporters but also a broader spectrum of Filipinos who see this as an act of disloyalty. The message is clear: political alliances are disposable, and history means nothing.

The Repercussions: A Nation in Disarray

This move has far-reaching consequences beyond Duterte himself. Millions of Filipinos supported his administration because they felt safer under his leadership. The aggressive crackdown on the drug trade reduced crime, providing peace of mind to ordinary citizens and especially, to millions of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) who enjoyed peace of mind, reassured that their families at home enjoyed a more secure environment. 

Duterte’s presidency was not without controversy, but many viewed his campaign as a necessary action against a pressing societal issue.

Now, with Marcos Jr.’s decision, the country is teetering on the edge of Durkheim’s concept of anomie—a state of normlessness and social instability. The outrage, disillusionment, and sense of betrayal felt by Duterte’s millions of supporters could lead to political and social turmoil reminiscent of the pre-EDSA Revolution era. If left unchecked, this unrest could weaken the government’s legitimacy and destabilize the nation.

A Sovereign Nation, or a Puppet of a Largely Ignored Organization?

Perhaps the most alarming aspect of this situation is the manner in which Duterte was sent to the Netherlands. Who furnished the Lear private jet that transported him? Was it arranged by the Philippine government, or was this an operation dictated by foreign influences? The idea that the Philippine National Police (PNP) was mobilized to serve an arrest warrant issued by a foreign court is repugnant to the territorial and inward-looking nature of Filipinos. It suggests that the nation is no longer in control of its own destiny, a humiliation that many Filipinos refuse to accept.

Conclusion

President Marcos Jr.’s decision to send Duterte to the ICC has the makings of  a catastrophic misstep that insults the Philippine justice system, disregards the values of gratitude and loyalty, and risks plunging the country into social instability. It degrades Duterte, a leader who remains beloved by millions, to the status of African dictators who rule over failed states, a category the ICC has traditionally associated with. This is a comparison that is both inaccurate and offensive. Marcos Jr.'s move undermines national sovereignty, disrespects legal institutions, and reeks of political betrayal. 

If history has taught Filipinos anything, it is that political treachery does not go unpunished. Marcos Jr. may soon learn this from the results of the coming May 12 elections, or, like his father, he might learn it the hard way.

Fractured Alliances: The Marcos-Duterte Rift and Its Impact on Philippine Governance, Policy, and the 2025 Elections

The 2025 midterm elections come in the wake of a momentous parting of ways between two influential Philippine political families. Following President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s big win in the 2022 elections, Vice-president Sara Duterte was considered by reputable polling to be a cinch to be the next president. She had graciously given way to Marcos Jr. in the run-up to the 2022 elections, forming the now-historic coalition aptly called "UniTeam".

However, the alliance soured because of differences in beliefs, the Marcos administration's about-face regarding Rodrigo Duterte's friendly approach to China, congressional probes into his violent drug program, and various scams involving his close allies. 

The Marcos-Duterte tandem in the 2022 elections was a significant event in the country's political history. UniTeam joined two influential political families, the recently resurrected Marcos political clan of Ilocos Norte, and the Duterte ruling family from Davao City.  Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. was running for president, and Sara Duterte, the daughter of the outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte, was his vice-presidential candidate.

Huge UniTeam Victory

Their shared campaign tactics and mutual support helped them achieve a huge victory, with Marcos Jr. obtaining 31,629,783 votes, accounting for 58.77% of the total votes cast, while Sara Duterte securing 32,208,417 votes, accounting for 61.53% of the total votes cast. At first, the partnership showed a strong bond between the two leaders, with Marcos Jr. asking for unity, and Duterte accommodating him.

However, there were strong undercurrents of conflict developing underneath the team-up. Marcos Jr. aspired for a "unifying leadership," which, to many, was a way to reinforce his control of the executive branch. Notably, his first cabinet members included a hodgepodge of leaders from the Marcos Sr., Arroyo, and Duterte governments. Needless to say, dissimilar policy goals, leadership styles, experiences, and age led to stresses in the UniTeam partnership.

Over time, tension started to show. Public disagreements and political actions by Marcos and Duterte increasingly showed incongruence and made the relationship go from bad to worse. Soon, incessant reports of power maneuverings and efforts to undercut Marcos Jr.'s authority began to abound. Making matters worse was Marcos Jr.'s policy of departing from Rodrigo Duterte's friendly relationship with China and his tacit support of legislative probes into the latter's "War on Drugs".

The May 2025 election will show how popular Marcos is and will be an opportunity for him to strengthen his power and prepare someone to take over. The powerful Duterte family, who had a messy split with Marcos, is trying hard to prevent this from happening.

The May 2025 election will  also be a litmus test on Marcos' popularity and his vote-generating capacity.  is. It is also a chance to improve his position in power and even his vantage point in choosing a successor.  The powerful Duterte family, who had a difficult breakup with Marcos, is doing everything they can to prevent this from happening.

How the Marcos-Duterte Feud Shapes the 2025 Elections

The political struggle between the Marcos and Duterte families reveals a significant change in Philippine politics. During the 2022 elections, the "Uniteam," an alliance forged by the two strong political families, swept the competition. However, this partnership unraveled in late 2023, exposing fundamental conflicts that blew into open hostility by 2024.

The public bickering began with Vice President Sara Duterte's resignation as education secretary in June. After this, the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee began probing Duterte regarding alleged misuse of confidential funds allocated to her office under the Department of Education 

This probe gave way to increased tensions, and by October Duterte was openly criticizing President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s leadership. The language she used, which included acerbic threats to exhume the late Ferdinand Marcos Sr.'s remains and implied violence against the incumbent president, escalated matters sharply. 

The Marcos Family Reacts

This quarrel elicited comments from key members of the Marcos family, underlining the clash's larger political complications. Ilocos Norte Governor Matthew Marcos Manotoc, who is the president's nephew, expressed disbelief at Duterte's remarks, mentioning her long-standing relationship with his mother, Senator Imee Marcos, as the reason for his doubts. 

The governor would rather emphasize the human aspect of the struggle, as long-standing connections and friendships appeared to be sacrificed in the thick of the fight. For his part, President Marcos' son, Congressman Ferdinand Alexander "Sandro" Marcos, expressed disapproval of Duterte's comments, saying she “crossed the line” and that her behavior was a “bizarre temper tantrum” towards the dead.

Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez, the president's first cousin, used his position in Congress to influence the issue, framing it as a war against disruptive forces, as represented by Duterte, which was destabilizing the government.  Romualdez's words inferred that the consequences of the rift were already exceeding the bounds of personal disputes and were already hampering effective governance and legislation. 

The Fragility of Philippine Political Alliances

The Marcos-Duterte split exposes the fragility of Philippine political alliances. What started as a partnership of convenience has developed into a very acrimonious public dispute, with excruciatingly personal attacks and carefully weighed answers. 

This separation has not only altered the nuances of the governing coalition but has also raised larger fears about the prospects of political discourse and governance in the Philippines. As the 2025 midterm elections loom, the gulf almost certainly will have sweeping aftereffects on party alliances, voter behavior, and the general bearing of Philippine politics.

Possible Consequences of the Marcos-Duterte Rift

Scenario 1: Challenges in Policy Implementation

The rift between Marcos and Duterte has created significant challenges in policy implementation. With the two camps at odds, it becomes increasingly difficult to coordinate efforts between the executive branch and local governments. This lack of coordination can lead to delays and inefficiencies in implementing policies and programs, ultimately affecting the delivery of public services and the well-being of citizens.

The disruption of coordinated efforts between the national and local governments can also lead to a lack of coherence in policy implementation. For instance, local governments may resist or refuse to implement policies initiated by the national government, leading to a hodge-podge of different policies and programs across the country. This can create confusion and uncertainty among citizens and businesses, undermining the effectiveness of government policies.

To address these challenges, the government must establish clear communication channels and coordination mechanisms between the national and local governments. This can involve regular consultations and meetings between government officials, as well as the establishment of clear guidelines and protocols for policy implementation.

Scenario 2: Strain on Continuity of Programs

The rift between Marcos and Duterte has also jeopardized the continuity of programs initiated under the current administration. The divergence in policy directions between Marcos and Duterte camps may lead to a shift in priorities and a potential abandonment of existing programs and projects. This can result in a waste of resources and a disruption in governance, ultimately affecting the delivery of public services and the well-being of citizens.

The strain on continuity can also undermine the effectiveness of government programs and policies. For instance, programs initiated under the preceding Duterte administration may be abandoned or modified by the Marcos administration, leading to a lack of coherence and consistency in policy implementation. This can create confusion and uncertainty among citizens and businesses, undermining the effectiveness of government policies.

To address these challenges, the government must establish clear guidelines and protocols for program continuity and transition. This can involve regular consultations and meetings between government officials, as well as the establishment of clear criteria and procedures for evaluating and continuing existing programs and projects.

Scenario 3: Reduced Public Trust

The rift between Marcos and Duterte can reduce public trust in government stability and effectiveness. The public feud between the two camps can create a perception of instability and weakness in the government, which could erode public confidence in the administration's ability to deliver on its promises. This can have long-term consequences for the country's democratic institutions and the rule of law.

This reduced public trust can also undermine the effectiveness of government policies and programs. For instance, citizens may be less likely to comply with government regulations or participate in government programs if they perceive the government as unstable or ineffective. This can create a vicious cycle of declining public trust and effectiveness, ultimately affecting the well-being of citizens and the development of the nation.

To address these challenges, it is essential for the government to establish clear communication channels and transparency mechanisms to inform citizens about government policies and programs. This can involve regular press conferences and public briefings, as well as the establishment of clear guidelines and protocols for government accountability and transparency.

Sources

• Associated Press. (2025, January 20). Philippines' president accuses predecessor Duterte of peddling lies over budget barb. Retrieved from https://apnews.com/article/187154445e118cfc7c9595861cce6ff2

• BBC News. (2024, May 31). Is the unstoppable Marcos-Duterte alliance headed for divorce? Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68137494

• BenarNews. (2024, July 31). Analysts: Collapse of Marcos-Duterte alliance to affect 2025 elections, foreign policy. Retrieved from https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/analysts-collapse-of-marcos-duterte-alliance-to-affect-2025-elections-foreign-policy-07312024133843.html

• East Asia Forum. (2023, December 30). Cracks in the Marcos–Duterte political alliance. Retrieved from https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/12/30/cracks-in-the-marcos-duterte-political-alliance/

• Fulcrum. (2024, July 4). Unravelling of the Marcos-Duterte dynastic alliance. Retrieved from https://fulcrum.sg/unravelling-of-the-marcos-duterte-dynastic-alliance/

• The Diplomat. (2024, November 8). The Marcos-Duterte rift in the Philippines is getting nastier and more personal. Retrieved from https://thediplomat.com/2024/11/the-marcos-duterte-rift-in-the-philippines-is-getting-nastier-and-more-personal/

• The Diplomat. (2025, January 9). What to expect in Philippine politics in 2025. Retrieved from https://thediplomat.com/2025/01/what-to-expect-in-philippine-politics-in-2025/

• The Guardian. (2024, October 10). Stage set for battle of the dynasties as Rodrigo Duterte eyes return to politics in the Philippines. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/10/stage-set-for-battle-of-the-dynasties-as-rodrigo-duterte-eyes-return-to-politics-in-the-philippines

• Reuters. (2024, February 2). 'Open warfare': Philippines' Marcos-Duterte alliance crumbles. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/open-warfare-philippines-marcos-duterte-alliance-crumbles-2024-02-02/

• Reuters. (2024, October 1). Marcos-Duterte battle in focus as Philippines prepares for midterm election. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/marcos-duterte-battle-focus-philippines-prepares-midterm-election-2024-10-01/

Trump's Triumph: The Comeback That Redefined America

Introduction

After Donald Trump's overwhelming defeat four years ago, observers saw the 2024 race as a foregone win for the Democrats. Many in the Republican Party believed that Trump would split the party and handily give the presidency to the Democrats.

However, on Wednesday, November 13, 2024, at 11:00 AM, President Biden welcomed a victorious Donald Trump back to the White House. Trump won the 2024 presidential election by spectacularly beating Kamala Harris, Obama, and the Democratic machine. It was the most stunning political comeback in US history.

Donald Trump won the popular vote over Kamala Harris by approximately 2.4 million votes. Trump received 77,168,458 votes (49.9%), while Harris garnered 74,749,891 votes (48.3%). On the other hand, he secured 312 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 needed to win the presidency, while Harris received 226 electoral votes.

This marks the first time a Republican candidate has won the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004. 

Trump's victory is even more noteworthy than in 2016, since as he clinched his victory, he transformed the Republican Party into a diverse and middle-class coalition. And to add insult to injury, Republicans retook the Senate and the House to form a "trifecta", leaving the Democrats in the woods.

The GOP achieved a 53-47 Senate majority, while in the House of Representatives, they maintained their majority, holding 220 seats to the Democrats' 215. 

These outcomes indicate a consolidation of Republican power across the executive and legislative branches following the 2024 elections.

Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election has far-reaching consequences for both domestic and international settings.

A Defeat for Lawfare and Mainstream Media Defamation

The Biden administration's unsuccessful "lawfare" approach and its defamation efforts against Trump contributed to Trump's victory. Despite these attacks, Trump achieved secured victories in all the so-called "swing states,"  namely Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

"Lawfare" refers to the use of legal systems and institutions to accomplish political or military goals. In the context of the Biden administration's measures against former President Donald Trump, "lawfare" refers to the many legal procedures launched during Biden's term.

The Department of Justice appointed Special Counsel Jack Smith to examine Trump's efforts to alter the 2020 election results, as well as his handling of confidential data. Smith's study determined that Trump engaged in a criminal endeavor to maintain power after losing the 2020 election. 

However, owing to Trump's re-election in 2024, these charges were dropped since it is against established Department of Justice policy to prosecute a sitting president.

On August 8, 2022, Biden administration unleashed the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) against Trump. Agents executed a search warrant to former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida, in a bold action that reflected the Biden administration's fear of Trump's presidential campaign. This extraordinary action was part of an investigation into Trump's suspected handling of classified government documents after leaving office.

A Divided Democratic Party

The division within the Democratic Party, along with Trump's emergence as the ultimate comeback figure, boosted his success. The Democratic Party's internal divisions weakened their unified messaging and strategy, hobbling their efforts to counter Trump's narrative effectively. On the other hand, Trump banked on his reputation as a resilient figure, using his comeback legend to motivate his base and entice undecided voters.

Trump's victory was more massive than what the figures tell since he defeated Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, the Democratic Establishment, the media, and the so-called "Big Tech." Major media and social media outlets humiliated and degraded themselves with their use of propaganda-level coverage, lying about Trump, mocking his words, and putting unseen intentions in everything he did. 

The mainstream media and "Big Tech" subjected Trump and his adversaries to two radically different standards: they supported unprecedented attempts to prosecute and imprison Trump while censoring free expression on social media. 

Media Gets Its Due

But the media's comeuppance was up and coming. This began after they ignored Biden's cognitive decline until the disastrous June debate. They shifted the protection racket to Harris, who gladly accepted the nomination. The character and conditions of Trump's victory are remarkable and are already part of his legend. Many, many years from now, it will be remembered as a tale or a fable.

In the near and distant future, candidates for all posts and both parties will minutely examine his campaign to see how Trump pulled off one of the most stunning victories in American political history. 

Trumpian mechanics, strategy, rallies, programs, and alliances all played a part. But no analysis of this momentous moment would be complete without acknowledging one other remarkable attribute of Trump: no one, certainly at least among his political peers, will ever outwork him. 

He is relentless, persistent, uncompromising, sleeps little, and is inclined to do tasks rather than blabber about them. His resolve for and dedication to America and its people have earned the respect of even his most vicious opponents.

Elon Musk's Role

Elon Musk’s role in Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory is multifaceted. However, if we are to focus on the fundamentals, we must acknowledge his influence on public opinion, his control over social media platforms, and the public's fascination with technological innovation.

Social Media Influence: Musk's acquisition of X (formerly Twitter) led to changes in platform policies, including the restoration of Donald Trump's banned accounts. This move enabled Trump to communicate directly with millions of followers, which, in turn, assisted him in forming his narratives and invigorating his voter base.

Tech-Driven Narratives: Musk's forthright views on free speech, government regulation, and popularized innovation appealed to parts of the electorate concerned about the excesses of "woke" culture. This alignment of values widened Trump's support among tech-savvy voters and free thinkers.

Endorsement Effect: While Musk didn’t openly endorse Trump, his public criticisms of the Biden administration and its policies—especially those affecting industries like energy and space exploration—obliquely aligned him with Trump's proposals. This recognizable alignment influenced voter sentiment in key demographics.

Media Amplification: Musk's prestige and credibility on the topics he addressed, including criticism of mainstream media and government inefficiency, gained increased media coverage. These issues often coincided with Trump's messaging, creating a reciprocally reinforcing effect in molding public opinion. These factors combined created a setting where Musk's actions and views helped shape the political topography that was receptive to Trump's campaign strategies.

The Biden Administration's Bad Policies

The Democratic Party's poor economic policies, open border policy, and radical stance on cultural issues all contributed to Donald Trump's victory. Moreover, the party's candidates, President Biden and Kamala Harris, were outstandingly weak and affected the election's outcome. And let us not even talk about the glaring disparities between the vice presidential candidates: steadfast JD Vance and  buffoonish Tim Walz. 

Nonetheless, the Democratic Party's frantic assault on Trump, which included claims of racism, fascism, and being Hitler, all backfired and played an important role in Trump's victory. 

Despite some Democrats acknowledging these issues, they were unable to confront the human essence of the battle. And that precisely was: under both Democratic and Republican administrations since Reagan, the American middle class, which was once a dependable Democratic constituency, has seen its portion of America's wealth decline and its financial stability worsen. 

As a result, their voting habits have become less predictable. Many middle-class voters, such as those who grew up in a staunchly Democratic home, are increasingly dissatisfied with the Democratic Party's new cultural agenda. They supported President Joe Biden in 2020 but got more disillusioned by the debate over such issues as teaching critical race theory (CRT) in schools, which the Democratic Party supports.

Domestic Implications

Political Realignment: Trump's victory signals a significant change in American politics. His ability to establish a diverse coalition, with increased backing from ethnic and working-class voters, suggests a change in traditional party strongholds. To reengage with these constituencies, the Democratic Party must reconsider its approach and ideals. 

Economic policies: The possibilities in Trump's pro-business agenda, which includes corporate tax cuts and deregulation, have already improved economic confidence. Following the election, the US economy grew significantly, reaching, at the time of this writing, a 31-month high in output, surpassing other major economies. 

Cultural Dynamics: The Trump administration continues to impact cultural and social issues, especially those related to immigration, law enforcement, and national identity. His opposition to "wokeism" and commitment to traditional values resonate with a significant portion of the population, possibly intensifying cultural tensions 

International consequences

Foreign policy shifts: Trump's return to the White House is anticipated to impact US foreign policy, notably relations with China, Iran, and NATO allies. His administration may adopt a more confrontational attitude against China and reassess its commitments to multilateral alliances, upsetting global diplomatic dynamics. We note the recent utterances of Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio. 

Global Economic Impact: The post-election economic surge in the United States, fueled by promises of tax cuts and deregulation, stands in stark contrast to Europe's ongoing economic stagnation. This disparity could significantly impact global markets, reshape trade relations, and influence international economic stability.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Trump's victory marks a significant shift in political alignments, economic methods, and cultural conflicts within the United States. As well, Trump's comeback portends changes in international relations and global economic trends. 

His triumph underscores the growing importance of connecting with middle-class and increasingly diverse voters, whose concerns about economic stability and cultural values played a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of the 2024 US elections. Both major parties will need to adjust their strategies to respond to the changing priorities and concerns of these key demographics. 

On the international stage, Trump's policies could well redefine alliances and global economic dynamics. New challenges and opportunities for geopolitical cooperation will be created. 

As historians, pundits, and the common American reflect on this election, it will prospectively serve as a lesson-rich case study on the motivations that drive political actors, the resilience and changing composition of political movements, and the enduring impact of inspired leadership on national and global political undertakings. 

Sources

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