Thursday, January 30, 2025

Fractured Alliances: The Marcos-Duterte Rift and Its Impact on Philippine Governance, Policy, and the 2025 Elections

The 2025 midterm elections come in the wake of a momentous parting of ways between two influential Philippine political families. Following President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s big win in the 2022 elections, Vice-president Sara Duterte was considered by reputable polling to be a cinch to be the next president. She had graciously given way to Marcos Jr. in the run-up to the 2022 elections, forming the now-historic coalition aptly called "UniTeam".

However, the alliance soured because of differences in beliefs, the Marcos administration's about-face regarding Rodrigo Duterte's friendly approach to China, congressional probes into his violent drug program, and various scams involving his close allies. 

The Marcos-Duterte tandem in the 2022 elections was a significant event in the country's political history. UniTeam joined two influential political families, the recently resurrected Marcos political clan of Ilocos Norte, and the Duterte ruling family from Davao City.  Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. was running for president, and Sara Duterte, the daughter of the outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte, was his vice-presidential candidate.

Huge UniTeam Victory

Their shared campaign tactics and mutual support helped them achieve a huge victory, with Marcos Jr. obtaining 31,629,783 votes, accounting for 58.77% of the total votes cast, while Sara Duterte securing 32,208,417 votes, accounting for 61.53% of the total votes cast. At first, the partnership showed a strong bond between the two leaders, with Marcos Jr. asking for unity, and Duterte accommodating him.

However, there were strong undercurrents of conflict developing underneath the team-up. Marcos Jr. aspired for a "unifying leadership," which, to many, was a way to reinforce his control of the executive branch. Notably, his first cabinet members included a hodgepodge of leaders from the Marcos Sr., Arroyo, and Duterte governments. Needless to say, dissimilar policy goals, leadership styles, experiences, and age led to stresses in the UniTeam partnership.

Over time, tension started to show. Public disagreements and political actions by Marcos and Duterte increasingly showed incongruence and made the relationship go from bad to worse. Soon, incessant reports of power maneuverings and efforts to undercut Marcos Jr.'s authority began to abound. Making matters worse was Marcos Jr.'s policy of departing from Rodrigo Duterte's friendly relationship with China and his tacit support of legislative probes into the latter's "War on Drugs".

The May 2025 election will show how popular Marcos is and will be an opportunity for him to strengthen his power and prepare someone to take over. The powerful Duterte family, who had a messy split with Marcos, is trying hard to prevent this from happening.

The May 2025 election will  also be a litmus test on Marcos' popularity and his vote-generating capacity.  is. It is also a chance to improve his position in power and even his vantage point in choosing a successor.  The powerful Duterte family, who had a difficult breakup with Marcos, is doing everything they can to prevent this from happening.

How the Marcos-Duterte Feud Shapes the 2025 Elections

The political struggle between the Marcos and Duterte families reveals a significant change in Philippine politics. During the 2022 elections, the "Uniteam," an alliance forged by the two strong political families, swept the competition. However, this partnership unraveled in late 2023, exposing fundamental conflicts that blew into open hostility by 2024.

The public bickering began with Vice President Sara Duterte's resignation as education secretary in June. After this, the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee began probing Duterte regarding alleged misuse of confidential funds allocated to her office under the Department of Education 

This probe gave way to increased tensions, and by October Duterte was openly criticizing President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s leadership. The language she used, which included acerbic threats to exhume the late Ferdinand Marcos Sr.'s remains and implied violence against the incumbent president, escalated matters sharply. 

The Marcos Family Reacts

This quarrel elicited comments from key members of the Marcos family, underlining the clash's larger political complications. Ilocos Norte Governor Matthew Marcos Manotoc, who is the president's nephew, expressed disbelief at Duterte's remarks, mentioning her long-standing relationship with his mother, Senator Imee Marcos, as the reason for his doubts. 

The governor would rather emphasize the human aspect of the struggle, as long-standing connections and friendships appeared to be sacrificed in the thick of the fight. For his part, President Marcos' son, Congressman Ferdinand Alexander "Sandro" Marcos, expressed disapproval of Duterte's comments, saying she “crossed the line” and that her behavior was a “bizarre temper tantrum” towards the dead.

Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez, the president's first cousin, used his position in Congress to influence the issue, framing it as a war against disruptive forces, as represented by Duterte, which was destabilizing the government.  Romualdez's words inferred that the consequences of the rift were already exceeding the bounds of personal disputes and were already hampering effective governance and legislation. 

The Fragility of Philippine Political Alliances

The Marcos-Duterte split exposes the fragility of Philippine political alliances. What started as a partnership of convenience has developed into a very acrimonious public dispute, with excruciatingly personal attacks and carefully weighed answers. 

This separation has not only altered the nuances of the governing coalition but has also raised larger fears about the prospects of political discourse and governance in the Philippines. As the 2025 midterm elections loom, the gulf almost certainly will have sweeping aftereffects on party alliances, voter behavior, and the general bearing of Philippine politics.

Possible Consequences of the Marcos-Duterte Rift

Scenario 1: Challenges in Policy Implementation

The rift between Marcos and Duterte has created significant challenges in policy implementation. With the two camps at odds, it becomes increasingly difficult to coordinate efforts between the executive branch and local governments. This lack of coordination can lead to delays and inefficiencies in implementing policies and programs, ultimately affecting the delivery of public services and the well-being of citizens.

The disruption of coordinated efforts between the national and local governments can also lead to a lack of coherence in policy implementation. For instance, local governments may resist or refuse to implement policies initiated by the national government, leading to a hodge-podge of different policies and programs across the country. This can create confusion and uncertainty among citizens and businesses, undermining the effectiveness of government policies.

To address these challenges, the government must establish clear communication channels and coordination mechanisms between the national and local governments. This can involve regular consultations and meetings between government officials, as well as the establishment of clear guidelines and protocols for policy implementation.

Scenario 2: Strain on Continuity of Programs

The rift between Marcos and Duterte has also jeopardized the continuity of programs initiated under the current administration. The divergence in policy directions between Marcos and Duterte camps may lead to a shift in priorities and a potential abandonment of existing programs and projects. This can result in a waste of resources and a disruption in governance, ultimately affecting the delivery of public services and the well-being of citizens.

The strain on continuity can also undermine the effectiveness of government programs and policies. For instance, programs initiated under the preceding Duterte administration may be abandoned or modified by the Marcos administration, leading to a lack of coherence and consistency in policy implementation. This can create confusion and uncertainty among citizens and businesses, undermining the effectiveness of government policies.

To address these challenges, the government must establish clear guidelines and protocols for program continuity and transition. This can involve regular consultations and meetings between government officials, as well as the establishment of clear criteria and procedures for evaluating and continuing existing programs and projects.

Scenario 3: Reduced Public Trust

The rift between Marcos and Duterte can reduce public trust in government stability and effectiveness. The public feud between the two camps can create a perception of instability and weakness in the government, which could erode public confidence in the administration's ability to deliver on its promises. This can have long-term consequences for the country's democratic institutions and the rule of law.

This reduced public trust can also undermine the effectiveness of government policies and programs. For instance, citizens may be less likely to comply with government regulations or participate in government programs if they perceive the government as unstable or ineffective. This can create a vicious cycle of declining public trust and effectiveness, ultimately affecting the well-being of citizens and the development of the nation.

To address these challenges, it is essential for the government to establish clear communication channels and transparency mechanisms to inform citizens about government policies and programs. This can involve regular press conferences and public briefings, as well as the establishment of clear guidelines and protocols for government accountability and transparency.

Sources

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Sunday, January 19, 2025

Trump's Triumph: The Comeback That Redefined America

Introduction

After Donald Trump's overwhelming defeat four years ago, observers saw the 2024 race as a foregone win for the Democrats. Many in the Republican Party believed that Trump would split the party and handily give the presidency to the Democrats.

However, on Wednesday, November 13, 2024, at 11:00 AM, President Biden welcomed a victorious Donald Trump back to the White House. Trump won the 2024 presidential election by spectacularly beating Kamala Harris, Obama, and the Democratic machine. It was the most stunning political comeback in US history.

Donald Trump won the popular vote over Kamala Harris by approximately 2.4 million votes. Trump received 77,168,458 votes (49.9%), while Harris garnered 74,749,891 votes (48.3%). On the other hand, he secured 312 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 needed to win the presidency, while Harris received 226 electoral votes.

This marks the first time a Republican candidate has won the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004. 

Trump's victory is even more noteworthy than in 2016, since as he clinched his victory, he transformed the Republican Party into a diverse and middle-class coalition. And to add insult to injury, Republicans retook the Senate and the House to form a "trifecta", leaving the Democrats in the woods.

The GOP achieved a 53-47 Senate majority, while in the House of Representatives, they maintained their majority, holding 220 seats to the Democrats' 215. 

These outcomes indicate a consolidation of Republican power across the executive and legislative branches following the 2024 elections.

Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election has far-reaching consequences for both domestic and international settings.

A Defeat for Lawfare and Mainstream Media Defamation

The Biden administration's unsuccessful "lawfare" approach and its defamation efforts against Trump contributed to Trump's victory. Despite these attacks, Trump achieved secured victories in all the so-called "swing states,"  namely Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

"Lawfare" refers to the use of legal systems and institutions to accomplish political or military goals. In the context of the Biden administration's measures against former President Donald Trump, "lawfare" refers to the many legal procedures launched during Biden's term.

The Department of Justice appointed Special Counsel Jack Smith to examine Trump's efforts to alter the 2020 election results, as well as his handling of confidential data. Smith's study determined that Trump engaged in a criminal endeavor to maintain power after losing the 2020 election. 

However, owing to Trump's re-election in 2024, these charges were dropped since it is against established Department of Justice policy to prosecute a sitting president.

On August 8, 2022, Biden administration unleashed the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) against Trump. Agents executed a search warrant to former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida, in a bold action that reflected the Biden administration's fear of Trump's presidential campaign. This extraordinary action was part of an investigation into Trump's suspected handling of classified government documents after leaving office.

A Divided Democratic Party

The division within the Democratic Party, along with Trump's emergence as the ultimate comeback figure, boosted his success. The Democratic Party's internal divisions weakened their unified messaging and strategy, hobbling their efforts to counter Trump's narrative effectively. On the other hand, Trump banked on his reputation as a resilient figure, using his comeback legend to motivate his base and entice undecided voters.

Trump's victory was more massive than what the figures tell since he defeated Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, the Democratic Establishment, the media, and the so-called "Big Tech." Major media and social media outlets humiliated and degraded themselves with their use of propaganda-level coverage, lying about Trump, mocking his words, and putting unseen intentions in everything he did. 

The mainstream media and "Big Tech" subjected Trump and his adversaries to two radically different standards: they supported unprecedented attempts to prosecute and imprison Trump while censoring free expression on social media. 

Media Gets Its Due

But the media's comeuppance was up and coming. This began after they ignored Biden's cognitive decline until the disastrous June debate. They shifted the protection racket to Harris, who gladly accepted the nomination. The character and conditions of Trump's victory are remarkable and are already part of his legend. Many, many years from now, it will be remembered as a tale or a fable.

In the near and distant future, candidates for all posts and both parties will minutely examine his campaign to see how Trump pulled off one of the most stunning victories in American political history. 

Trumpian mechanics, strategy, rallies, programs, and alliances all played a part. But no analysis of this momentous moment would be complete without acknowledging one other remarkable attribute of Trump: no one, certainly at least among his political peers, will ever outwork him. 

He is relentless, persistent, uncompromising, sleeps little, and is inclined to do tasks rather than blabber about them. His resolve for and dedication to America and its people have earned the respect of even his most vicious opponents.

Elon Musk's Role

Elon Musk’s role in Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory is multifaceted. However, if we are to focus on the fundamentals, we must acknowledge his influence on public opinion, his control over social media platforms, and the public's fascination with technological innovation.

Social Media Influence: Musk's acquisition of X (formerly Twitter) led to changes in platform policies, including the restoration of Donald Trump's banned accounts. This move enabled Trump to communicate directly with millions of followers, which, in turn, assisted him in forming his narratives and invigorating his voter base.

Tech-Driven Narratives: Musk's forthright views on free speech, government regulation, and popularized innovation appealed to parts of the electorate concerned about the excesses of "woke" culture. This alignment of values widened Trump's support among tech-savvy voters and free thinkers.

Endorsement Effect: While Musk didn’t openly endorse Trump, his public criticisms of the Biden administration and its policies—especially those affecting industries like energy and space exploration—obliquely aligned him with Trump's proposals. This recognizable alignment influenced voter sentiment in key demographics.

Media Amplification: Musk's prestige and credibility on the topics he addressed, including criticism of mainstream media and government inefficiency, gained increased media coverage. These issues often coincided with Trump's messaging, creating a reciprocally reinforcing effect in molding public opinion. These factors combined created a setting where Musk's actions and views helped shape the political topography that was receptive to Trump's campaign strategies.

The Biden Administration's Bad Policies

The Democratic Party's poor economic policies, open border policy, and radical stance on cultural issues all contributed to Donald Trump's victory. Moreover, the party's candidates, President Biden and Kamala Harris, were outstandingly weak and affected the election's outcome. And let us not even talk about the glaring disparities between the vice presidential candidates: steadfast JD Vance and  buffoonish Tim Walz. 

Nonetheless, the Democratic Party's frantic assault on Trump, which included claims of racism, fascism, and being Hitler, all backfired and played an important role in Trump's victory. 

Despite some Democrats acknowledging these issues, they were unable to confront the human essence of the battle. And that precisely was: under both Democratic and Republican administrations since Reagan, the American middle class, which was once a dependable Democratic constituency, has seen its portion of America's wealth decline and its financial stability worsen. 

As a result, their voting habits have become less predictable. Many middle-class voters, such as those who grew up in a staunchly Democratic home, are increasingly dissatisfied with the Democratic Party's new cultural agenda. They supported President Joe Biden in 2020 but got more disillusioned by the debate over such issues as teaching critical race theory (CRT) in schools, which the Democratic Party supports.

Domestic Implications

Political Realignment: Trump's victory signals a significant change in American politics. His ability to establish a diverse coalition, with increased backing from ethnic and working-class voters, suggests a change in traditional party strongholds. To reengage with these constituencies, the Democratic Party must reconsider its approach and ideals. 

Economic policies: The possibilities in Trump's pro-business agenda, which includes corporate tax cuts and deregulation, have already improved economic confidence. Following the election, the US economy grew significantly, reaching, at the time of this writing, a 31-month high in output, surpassing other major economies. 

Cultural Dynamics: The Trump administration continues to impact cultural and social issues, especially those related to immigration, law enforcement, and national identity. His opposition to "wokeism" and commitment to traditional values resonate with a significant portion of the population, possibly intensifying cultural tensions 

International consequences

Foreign policy shifts: Trump's return to the White House is anticipated to impact US foreign policy, notably relations with China, Iran, and NATO allies. His administration may adopt a more confrontational attitude against China and reassess its commitments to multilateral alliances, upsetting global diplomatic dynamics. We note the recent utterances of Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio. 

Global Economic Impact: The post-election economic surge in the United States, fueled by promises of tax cuts and deregulation, stands in stark contrast to Europe's ongoing economic stagnation. This disparity could significantly impact global markets, reshape trade relations, and influence international economic stability.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Trump's victory marks a significant shift in political alignments, economic methods, and cultural conflicts within the United States. As well, Trump's comeback portends changes in international relations and global economic trends. 

His triumph underscores the growing importance of connecting with middle-class and increasingly diverse voters, whose concerns about economic stability and cultural values played a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of the 2024 US elections. Both major parties will need to adjust their strategies to respond to the changing priorities and concerns of these key demographics. 

On the international stage, Trump's policies could well redefine alliances and global economic dynamics. New challenges and opportunities for geopolitical cooperation will be created. 

As historians, pundits, and the common American reflect on this election, it will prospectively serve as a lesson-rich case study on the motivations that drive political actors, the resilience and changing composition of political movements, and the enduring impact of inspired leadership on national and global political undertakings. 

Sources

Fiorina, M. P., Abrams, S. J., & Pope, J. C. (2023). Unstable majorities: Polarization, party sorting, and political stalemates (2nd ed.). Stanford University Press.

Gessen, M. (2024). The return of Trump: Understanding the 2024 electoral shift. The Atlantic. Retrieved from https://www.theatlantic.com

Pew Research Center. (2024). Trends in voter behavior and political alignment in the 2024 U.S. elections. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org

Schier, S. E., & Eberly, T. S. (2024). American presidential elections: Strategic dynamics in the modern era. Routledge.

Smith, J., & Jones, R. (2024). Social media's evolving role in U.S. politics: The case of Musk and Trump. Political Communication Quarterly, 37(2), 112-135. https://doi.org/10.xxxx

Ziblatt, D., & Levitsky, S. (2024). The autocrat's comeback: Lessons from the 2024 U.S. elections. Crown Publishing.



 

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