Duterte’s War on Drugs: Safety, Sacrifice, and a Divided Legacy

President Rodrigo R. Duterte's government is most notable for his aggressive war on drugs. Launched immediately after his administration in 2016, this program aimed to eradicate drug usage and trafficking, which he saw as a serious danger to the Philippines' societal fabric. While Duterte's anti-drug campaign, known as Oplan Tokhang, has achieved significant results, it has also been chastised for its brutal tactics and excesses. 

We will use statistical data and accessible facts to dissect the primary assertions of safety improvements, national emergency rationale, collateral harm, and the destruction of the drug infrastructure.

1. The Philippines is Safer Because of Duterte's Drug War.

One of the most commonly claimed triumphs of Duterte's anti-drug campaign has been the decrease in crime rates throughout the nation. During the height of the drug war, the Philippine National Police (PNP) claimed a significant decline in the number of index crimes, which included murder, robbery, and theft. 

According to official PNP estimates, index crimes decreased by 49% between 2016 and 2021. This time overlaps with the rigorous execution of anti-drug legislation, and proponents of the war say that this pattern demonstrates a direct link between the drug war and general public safety gains.

Furthermore, during the campaign's early phases, nearly 600,000 drug users and pushers willingly surrendered to police under Oplan Tokhang. This widespread surrender of drug traffickers was seen as a crucial step in reducing the drug pandemic and restoring public safety. The government stated that removing drug users off the streets would automatically reduce drug-related crimes like theft and violence.

However, these numbers should be investigated. Independent experts have expressed questions about the authenticity of the PNP's crime figures, arguing that non-reporting or underreporting of crimes may have artificially increased the drug war's apparent effectiveness. 

Furthermore, others contend that, although overall crime rates may have dropped, fear and intimidation may have deterred individuals from reporting crimes, especially when offenders were law enforcement agents active in the drug war. As a result, although crime rate decreases are claimed as proof of the drug war's effectiveness, the accuracy of these figures is still debated.

2. Duterte's Drug War was a Response to a De Facto National Emergency.

President Duterte's policies and actions have presented the drug situation in the Philippines as a national emergency, justifying the harshness of his reaction. He repeatedly said that 3 to 4 million Filipinos were engaged in drug usage, resulting in a catastrophic situation that required prompt and decisive action. 

While these statistics were extensively reported, surveys done by the Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) revealed a lesser but still substantial total of 1.8 million drug users. Regardless of the specific statistics, Duterte's government has constantly framed the drug issue as an existential danger, necessitating a "war" attitude.

Given this framework, Duterte used exceptional actions, often circumventing established legal channels. The administration defended extrajudicial murders and mass arrests by claiming that the situation required quick action and that the legal system was too sluggish to handle the rising drug problem. In doing so, the president was banking on his successful anti-drug campaign as Davao City mayor, a position he held for a total of twenty-two years (1988-1998, 2001-2010, and 2013-2016).

This narrative was used to build popular support for the campaign, and studies showed that a sizable section of the Filipino populace originally supported Duterte's strategy, seeing it as a necessary evil in dealing with the country's drug malady.

However, the portrayal of the drug problem as a national emergency is also debated. Critics contend that, although drug use was a major problem, it had not escalated into a crisis that merited widespread violence and human rights violations. 

They claim that the government overstated the scale of the problem to justify harsh measures and divert attention away from other social challenges such as poverty, corruption, and poor public services.

3. The Drug War's Excesses: Mistakes and Unnecessary Killings

Like any conflict, Duterte's drug campaign had its share of excesses, and it has been the most contentious aspect of his leadership. While his government asserted that the majority of the 6,000 fatalities documented during official operations were justified, there have been several instances of so-called extrajudicial killings (EJKs). 

Human rights groups like Amnesty International (AI) and Human Rights Watch (HRW) believe that the true death toll is between 12,000 and 30,000, with many of the deaths taking place outside of official police operations. Many of the victims were not hardened criminals but rather casual drug users and low-level pushers from disadvantaged neighborhoods, thus disproportionately harming the urban poor.

Perhaps the most high-profile example was the 2017 murder of 17-year-old Kian delos Santos, which prompted a national and worldwide outcry. According to CCTV evidence and eyewitness testimony, Kian was killed by police even though he was unarmed and posed no danger. 

Cases like this, coupled with other suspicions of "planting evidence" and fabricating charges, have undermined the acceptability and propriety of Duterte's drug battle. These killings, often known as vigilante-style murders, damaged public trust in law enforcement and sparked charges of state-sponsored violence.

The Duterte administration justified these operations as essential to keep the peace and minimize the drug danger. However, the large number of civilian fatalities and the presence of rogue elements in the police force amplified the attention of both local and foreign observers. 

However, despite these concerns, Duterte remained popular with many Filipinos, who thought that the campaign's advantages, such as reduced crime and disruption of drug operations, outweighed the bad results.

4. Dismantling the Drug Infrastructure

According to Duterte's government, one of the primary triumphs of the drug war has been the demolition of criminal syndicates and the interruption of the illicit drug trade. From 2016 to 2021, the PNP and other agencies carried out over 220,000 anti-drug operations, arresting over 300,000 people, including several "high-value targets" (HVTs). 

During this era, authorities recovered almost ₱75 billion in narcotics, greatly disrupting the supply of illicit drugs, which consisted mainly of methamphetamine hydrochloride (locally known as "shabu"), the most widely used drug in the Philippines.

Critics say that, although the program reduced local drug trafficking networks, it did not completely eradicate them. Reports continued to emerge regarding the continuous availability of narcotics, with large-scale seizures continuing after years of strong anti-drug actions. 

Furthermore, the participation of certain law enforcement agents in the drug trade calls into question the government's claims of accomplishment. The notorious "ninja cops" affair, in which police officers were discovered recycling stolen narcotics for sale, revealed systemic corruption and undermined the Duterte drug war's legitimacy.

Where This Analysis Hits a Snag

The statistics cited to back up Duterte's claims of success in the drug war are mostly from official sources, such as the Philippine National Police (PNP) and the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA). While these agencies give official numbers, several independent groups and individuals have questioned their accuracy. 

Human rights organizations and some journalists contend that the statistics may have been underreported or altered to portray the drug war in a more positive light. 

For example, the government often reported a low number of extrajudicial executions, although human rights organizations offer substantially higher figures. Furthermore, authorities' frequent unwillingness to facilitate independent inquiries into drug-related fatalities raises questions about their openness.

While the Duterte government repeatedly claimed that the data was  correct, the disparities between official statistics and those published by independent groups indicate that care should be used when assessing the overall performance and impact of Duterte's drug campaign.

Conclusion

President Duterte's drug war has had a significant effect on the Philippines. It has resulted in a drop in crime but it could be argued that this came at the cost of thousands of deaths and the degradation of human rights. 

While the endeavor was successful in breaking drug networks and apprehending many people engaged in the trade, it was also tainted by allegations of brutality, extrajudicial executions, and corruption. 

Duterte's drug war has left a split legacy -- for some, it was a necessary reaction to a national emergency, while others saw it as an overzealous and brutal campaign that promoted fear above justice. 

Finally, the trustworthiness of the statistics proving the campaign's effectiveness is debatable, and the long-term ramifications of the drug war are likely to be felt for many years. But one thing is sure, and that is the Philippines is that much safer because of Rodrigo Duterte's war on drugs, and to many Filipinos, that is all that matters. 

Sources

Amnesty International. (2017). "If you are poor, you are killed": Extrajudicial executions in the Philippines' "war on drugs". Retrieved from https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/asa35/5517/2017/en/

Chin, C. (2021). The Philippines’ war on drugs: Understanding the strategies and impact of Duterte’s drug policies. Journal of Drug Policy Analysis, 34(1), 21-33. https://doi.org/10.1093/jdp/jpab123

Human Rights Watch. (2017). "License to kill": Philippine police killings in Duterte's "war on drugs". Retrieved from https://www.hrw.org/report/2017/03/02/license-kill/philippine-police-killings-dutertes-war-drugs

International Criminal Court. (2021). Report on preliminary examination activities: Philippines (2016-2021). Retrieved from https://www.icc-cpi.int/itemsDocuments/2021-PE-Philippines.pdf

Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA). (2020). Anti-drug operations annual report. Retrieved from https://pdea.gov.ph/our-accomplishments

Philippine National Police (PNP). (2021). PNP year-end review: Crime statistics and anti-drug operations. Retrieved from https://www.pnp.gov.ph/index.php/crime-statistics

Rappler. (2020, July 2). Duterte’s drug war: 4 years of killings in numbers. Retrieved from https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in-depth/duterte-war-drugs-4-years-numbers

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). (2019). Global report on drug trends in Southeast Asia: The Philippines. Retrieved from https://www.unodc.org/documents/southeastasiaandpacific/2019/Philippines-drug-report.pdf

Japan's Economic Decline: Overcoming Demographic Shifts, Technological Lag, and Cultural Hurdles

Once hailed as an economic powerhouse, Japan faces a complex decline driven by demographic issues and a reluctance to embrace necessary changes. This gradual shift has become a significant challenge for the country. Japan’s stagnating economy is a stark contrast to the post-World War II era when the country experienced an economic miracle. However, the very structures that once fueled its growth have now become obstacles to innovation and adaptability.

In its most recent assessment of Japan’s economy, the IMF projects that 2020 economic growth will remain resilient at 0.7 percent. Women’s labor force participation has increased significantly in recent years, but in the coming years, the shrinking and aging of the population will mean fewer and older workers—depressing both growth and productivity. A recent IMF staff paper estimates that Japan’s economic growth will decline by 0.8 percentage points on average each year over the next 40 years due to demographics alone.

Background of Japan's Economic Decline

The rise of Japan as an economic superpower is deeply rooted in its recovery after World War II. The country adopted an export-oriented growth model with strong government intervention. This helped it achieve impressive growth rates during the 60s and 70s. 

During this period, large conglomerates, known as the keiretsu, played a pivotal role in fostering cooperation among companies and driving innovation in manufacturing. However, starting in the 90s, Japan struggled to keep pace as the global economy transitioned to a more technology-driven landscape. Today, only one Japanese company ranks among the world's top 50, reflecting how far the nation has fallen from its economic heights.

Irrelevant Keiretsu System

Japan's reliance on the keiretsu system, while initially beneficial, became a liability in the face of rapid global changes. The system, built on close ties between banks and corporations, created a rigid structure that hindered flexibility and innovation. 

Japan was slow to adapt to emerging technologies, particularly in the digital and software industries. This lack of agility is evident when compared to nations like the United States and China, which excelled in both sectors.

The fact that the Japanese economy is stagnant reveals a number of structural and demographic difficulties that have impeded its growth. One of the key challenges is Japan's aging population, which has resulted in a decreasing workforce, lower productivity, and a stagnant economy. 

An Aging Population, Restrictive and Shrinking Labor Market, and Resistance to Change

This demographic evolution also puts pressure on social security systems, which has strained governmental resources even further. 

Another problem is that Japan's labor market remains restrictive, with few possibilities for women and older workers to fully engage and little progress in the adoption of productivity-boosting technology.

Another structural issue is Japan's reluctance to embrace changes that could modernize its economy, including the deregulation of critical sectors and an increase in innovation. The Japanese business community, characterized by its risk-averse culture and hierarchical decision-making, has been slow to respond to global trends, especially in terms of digital transformation. 

Inefficient Healthcare System

Furthermore, industries such as services, healthcare, and agriculture continue to be relatively inefficient as compared to their global counterparts, pulling down the economy. Without major reforms, Japan would remain stagnant, with limited short-term development possibilities.

Japan's postwar baby boom was brief—approximately three years, compared to other G7 nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States), where similar periods ranged from nine to twenty years. This means that compared to the latter, Japan's demographic structure will change substantially in only a few years, especially when baby boomers reach retirement age and become eligible for public pension and healthcare benefits.

Japan tops the world in terms of life expectancy, topping all G20 (world's largest economies) countries as early as 1978. Extended life expectancy, along with low fertility, has hastened the demographic transition in Japan, resulting in a constant rise in the old-age dependency ratio (the number of retired persons compared to the working-age population).

Moreover, immigration flows are insufficient to have a significant influence on Japan's aging and decreasing population. Japan stands apart from the other G7 countries in terms of its reliance on foreign labor. Foreign workers made up just approximately 2.2% of Japan's overall labor force in 2018, compared to an estimated 17.4% in the United States, 17% in the United Kingdom, and 12% in Germany.

The Digital Deficit and Demographic Crisis

One of the key factors contributing to Japan’s decline was its failure to transition effectively into the digital age. As the global economy increasingly favored technology and software innovation, Japan was left behind. The country, known for its excellence in hardware and manufacturing, did not capitalize on the rise of software, artificial intelligence, and other digital industries. This technological stagnation diminished its competitive edge, placing it behind more dynamic economies.

In the 1980s, Japan had a thriving consumer electronics sector that served as the foundation of its successful export business. However, new digital technologies quickly replaced the analog devices on which Japan had a near monopoly, and both the private sector and the government failed to adapt.

Demographic Crisis Exacerbates Japan's Economic Problems

Japan's demographic crisis exacerbates its economic problems. With one of the lowest birth rates in the world and a rapidly aging population, Japan's workforce is shrinking. This has profound implications for the economy, as a declining working-age population means reduced productivity and economic growth. 

Adult diapers now outsell baby diapers in Japan, demonstrating the harsh truth of this generational change. Without a younger generation to replace seniors and keep the workforce active, Japan's economic stagnation is likely to persist.

In fact, the proportion of aged individuals in the working population in Japan is already one of the highest in the world, while the fertility rate is one of the lowest, meaning that the population's age distribution will move significantly over the next several decades. By 2025, there will be about one elderly person for every two people of working age, giving Japan the highest old-age dependence ratio of any major industrial nation.

The Need for Cultural and Structural Adjustment

To improve its economic fortunes, Japan must address not only its demographic challenges but also its cultural resistance to change. Japan’s traditional values have long emphasized quality, craftsmanship, and perseverance, which helped the country rise to prominence. 

However, these same values now hinder its ability to adapt to the fast-paced, ever-changing global economy. The reluctance to embrace new ideas and cultural shifts has left Japan behind in sectors where innovation and flexibility are crucial.

Government intervention, once a critical factor in Japan’s economic success, now needs to evolve. The same policies that spurred post-war recovery are no longer effective in today’s digital and service-oriented world. 

For Japan to regain its footing, it must adopt a more forward-looking approach, encouraging entrepreneurship, fostering innovation, and creating an environment where new industries can thrive.

Conclusion

This essay has highlighted the complexity of Japan's economic challenges, pointing out three core areas that need addressing: demographics, technology, and cultural resistance. Japan’s aging and shrinking population is a central factor in its economic stagnation, as fewer workers mean lower productivity and higher social security burdens. 

This demographic challenge creates a pressing need for reforms that could expand the workforce, such as policies to encourage greater participation by women and older individuals, as well as more robust immigration policies.

Technological stagnation is another significant hurdle, as Japan has been slow to adopt new technologies and innovations compared to other advanced economies. In addition to this, the deeply ingrained cultural resistance to change, especially in its corporate structures, prevents the country from fully embracing the digital and technological advancements needed to stay competitive in the global economy. 

For Japan to reinvigorate its economy, it must overcome this cultural resistance, modernize its labor markets, and foster a more innovation-friendly environment. Embracing new ideas and policies that reflect the demands of the digital age is crucial if Japan is to escape its current economic stagnation.

Japan’s economic decline is a multi-faceted issue rooted in demographic challenges, technological stagnation, and cultural resistance to change. While the country’s post-war recovery remains an impressive feat, the same systems and structures that once propelled it forward are now holding it back.

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