The Philippines: A Rising Tiger in the Asian Economy

The Philippine economy is expected to maintain its upward trajectory and establish itself as a key player in the Asian region, with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) projecting a growth rate of 5.7 percent in 2023. The country's strong domestic demand is seen as the driving force behind this positive outlook, which is likely to propel the economy towards its full potential shortly.

The World Bank (WB) expects Philippine growth to surpass other Southeast Asian nations, including Cambodia (5.5%), Indonesia (5%), Vietnam (4.7%), Malaysia (3.9%), Laos (3.7%), Thailand (3.4%), and Myanmar (3%).

The WB  has updated its predictions for the Philippines' economic growth. According to its latest report, the country's growth rate for 2024 has been lowered to 5.8% from the previous forecast of 5.9%. Despite this revision, the Philippines is expected to be the second-fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia for 2024, according to the WB, with Cambodia taking the lead with a growth rate of 6.1%.

The Philippines' growth narrative is complex and multi-faceted, powered by different interplaying internal factors. Urbanization is picking up, a trend that has traditionally fueled economic progress by generating economies of scale, boosting productivity through concentrated commercial activities, and cultivating innovation. As cities grow and modernize, they become hubs for investment and job creation, significantly contributing to the country's GDP growth.

The Philippines’ urbanization process is being complemented by the expansion of its middle class, which plays a vital role in the economy. A larger middle class leads to higher consumer spending, increased savings rates, more investment in education and health, and a more skilled workforce. 

Additionally, the Philippines is benefiting from a demographic dividend. The country has a large, young, and increasingly well-educated youth demographic that is entering the workforce and is ready to contribute to and benefit from the country's economic growth.

The Philippine labor market is a vital component of its economic prosperity. Its employment rates are increasing, and its job market is evolving to keep pace with technological advancements and the needs of a global economy. The government's emphasis on enhancing human capital through education and training is anticipated to further enhance the labor force's efficiency.

Remittances sent by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) have been a reliable source of income through the years and have helped cushion the impact of external shocks on the economy. These transfers play a crucial role in fueling consumer spending and generating a multiplier effect in various sectors of the economy, particularly real estate and retail.

Upon delving deeper into the statistics, it becomes clear that much of the recent economic growth of the Philippines can be attributed to its openness towards global trade and investment. This investment liberalization significantly expands the country's economic prospects. 

The stable investment rates indicate that the business environment is conducive to long-term planning and capital allocation. Furthermore, the notable increase in foreign direct investment (FDIs) reflects international confidence in the country's economic management and future potential.

The Philippine economy has shown remarkable resilience in bouncing back from the pandemic, making it one of the strongest recoveries among emerging markets. The country's GDP grew by 7.6% in 2022, a testament to its robust economic fundamentals and the effectiveness of its policy measures during a period of global turbulence.

This is the fastest rate of economic growth recorded by the Philippines since 1976. With strong growth forecast over the medium-term, the size of the Philippines' GDP is set to reach USD one trillion by 2033.

According to the projection, the Philippine economy is expected to grow by 5.7 percent. Although this forecast is lower than the domestic forecast, it still indicates a positive outlook. However, it also serves as a reminder of potential headwinds that could limit growth, such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and the possibility of economic downturns in major global economies.

Considering the forecasts and the country's current performance, it is evident that the Philippines is on its way to becoming a developed country. The government's focus on infrastructure development with projects aimed at improving connectivity and productivity is set to create a more efficient economy that attracts increased investment. 

Prioritizing education reform and skill development programs will ensure that the workforce remains competitive and responsive to the demands of a rapidly evolving labor market.

To maintain the current growth, the Philippines must persist in implementing policies that promote economic inclusivity and resilience. It is vital that economic growth be distributed evenly across different sectors and regions, and its benefits are accessible to all classes of society. This approach is crucial in ensuring long-term sustainability.

It is probable that by the end of 2023, the Philippine economy will have undergone a significant transformation. As stated, the country is betting on growth drivers such as urbanization, demographic advantages, and economic openness. 

The Marcos administration has given assurances that it will continue to work towards achieving the country's economic and social transformation targets, especially after the government reported a 5.9 percent year-on-year GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023. This growth rate is the fastest among emerging economies in Asia.

This administration’s economic approach not only helps the country recover from the pandemic but also sets the stage for a prosperous and developed future. As mentioned, current economic indicators, such as strong consumer demand, a robust labor market, and increased foreign investment, are all positive signs that the Philippines is moving in the right direction and has the potential to achieve new economic heights in the coming years.

References

Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2023. (2023, October 5). Asian Development Bank. https://www.adb.org/publications/asian-development-outlook-september-2023

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Media and Research. (n.d.). https://www.bsp.gov.ph/SitePages/MediaAndResearch/MediaDisp.aspx?ItemId=6793

Banzuelo, N. (2023, October 2). World Bank expects Philippine growth to be fastest in SE Asia. BusinessWorld Online. https://www.bworldonline.com/top-stories/2023/10/03/549296/world-bank-expects-philippine-growth-to-be-fastest-in-se-asia/

Biswas,R(2023,April24).PhilippinesonTracktoBecomeOneTrillionDollarEconomy by2033.IHSMarkit.https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/philippines-on-track-to-become-one-trillion-dollar-economy-by-2033.html

International Fund for Agricultural Development. (2022). The Impact of Remittances in the Philippines. Retrieved from [IFAD website].

International Monetary Fund. (2023). Philippines Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery Report. Retrieved from [IMF website].

L. (2022, August 5). LIST: Build Build Build Projects and Their Status. Lamudi. https://www.lamudi.com.ph/journal/build-build-build-projects/

Labor Force Survey | Philippine Statistics Authority | Republic of the Philippines. (2023, November 8). https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/labor-force-survey

Philippines - Market Overview. (n.d.). International Trade Administration | Trade.gov. https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/philippines-market-overview

Philippines | United Nations Development Programme. (n.d.). UNDP. https://www.undp.org/philippines

Philippines Economic Updates. (2023, June 14). World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/philippines/publication/philippine-economicupdates#:~:text=Weighed%20down%20by%20the%20COVID,and%206.0%20percent%20in%202023.

PIA Press Releases. (2023, November 10). PH Economy Grows 5.9% Under Marcos Administration. Retrieved from https://pia.gov.ph/press-releases/2023/11/10/ph-economy-grows-59

United Nations Population Fund. (2022). The State of Philippine Urbanization. Retrieved from [UNFPA website].

Why Current Fears About World War III Are Exaggerated

 Introduction

The fear of a third world war is a nagging anxiety that resonates across the globe. It has of late been heightened by three key international conflicts. When discussing such a sensitive and complex issue, it is essential to understand the various geopolitical, economic, and social dimensions that feed this pervasive concern.

In the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, for instance, the fear stems from the fact that the conflict involves not just neighboring countries, but the major world powers who are all nuclear-armed. 

The invasion has led to severe economic sanctions against Russia, a ripple effect on global markets, and a deepening rift between Russia and Western countries, especially the 30 who are members of NATO. There is an inherent apprehension that any miscalculation or escalation could lead to a broader conflict, which could reach a global scale.

The Israel vs. Hamas conflict, although localized, also contributes into the fear of a wider war. This fear is due to the historical context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has seen multiple nations involved either directly or through proxies. 

The Middle East is a region with complex alliances and antagonisms, and the Israel vs Hamas conflict has the potential to spark a wider confrontation, especially if regional powers like Iran or Saudi Arabia become more directly involved.

As for the tensions across the Taiwan Strait, the prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is particularly alarming because of its possible implications for international relations and the global balance of power. This friction is a major flashpoint in U.S.-China relations.

Any military action by China could provoke a response from the United States, which has significant political and economic ties to Taiwan. What is more, China's growing military capabilities and its strong posturing in the South China Sea have raised concerns about regional stability. Needless to say, this bluster carries with it the potential for a domino effect that could engage multiple Asia-Pacific nations in a larger conflict.

The combined effect of the above three situations contributes to a global atmosphere of unease. While each has its unique causes and possible resolutions, the interconnected nature of the modern world means that tensions in one area have far-reaching consequences. 

The fear of World War III is thus a reflection of the awareness that, in a highly interconnected and armed world, regional conflicts have the potential to escalate and intertwine, potentially leading to a catastrophic global war that the international community is eager to avoid.

Russia vs Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, has led to significant international tensions, with many countries imposing sanctions on Russia and providing various forms of support to Ukraine. 

The conflict has had global repercussions, but it has not escalated to the point of a world war. International diplomatic efforts continue to find a resolution, though the situation remains complex and volatile.

Experts believed that Russia would succumb to Western sanctions. Those anticipating a Russian economic disaster have learned nothing from Western sanctions on North Korea and Iran, two much smaller nations that have faced tough sanctions for many years. The sanctions undoubtedly harmed their economies, but these did not change the essence of the regimes.

Today, Russia and Ukraine look to be engaged in a "foxhole" conflict akin to WW I, in which both sides suffered enormous casualties yet made no meaningful territorial or strategic gains. It is becoming more likely that this costly impasse will endure for years. There are various reasons to believe this is true, but two of the more compelling ones are:

First, neither Russia nor Ukraine seem to be militarily capable of defeating the other. Second,  , neither Vladimir Putin nor Volodymyr Zelensky are willing to resign. If Zelensky gives up, his nation will lose its freedom, and he will be deposed. If Putin resigns, his reputation as Russia's strongman will be shattered, and there will be a period of political uncertainty and instability as various factions will vie for power.

Israel vs. Hamas  

The conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is a long-standing one, with periodic escalations that lead to military confrontations. The international community often intervenes to broker ceasefires, and while these flare-ups contribute to regional instability, they have not triggered a wider war. Nevertheless, efforts to mediate and find a long-term solution endure amidst these recurring cycles of violence.

There are four possible scenarios that this conflict can result in. 

1. Ceasefire. A cease-fire would need a formal, political agreement between Israel and Hamas to end the hostilities. It would include the departure of Israeli soldiers from Gaza, as well as a Hamas vow to free all captives. A cease-fire must apply to the whole geographical region of Israel and the Palestinian territories, rather than simply a specific zone. 

2. End of hostilities. The word 'end of hostilities,' is sometimes used interchangeably with 'ceasefire,' and also implies a halt in combat. ‘End of hostilities’, however, is less organized than a ceasefire and does not represent a political agreement between the two parties, complete with goals, timetables, and monitoring. It is less desirable than a ceasefire but is better than nothing.

3. Truce or humanitarian halt. This is not a ceasefire, but rather a brief halt in combat to enable humanitarian supplies into Gaza and maybe safe passage out of the enclave for those in grave danger. Humanitarian pauses may not have to span the whole combat zone but might be limited to a specific region. They are often brief, lasting barely a few hours.

4. The total destruction of Hamas. This is the avowed aim of Israel. Israel's aim is to remove what it sees as an immediate security threat to its citizens and its national security. Hamas is designated by Israel, the United States, and the European Union, among others, as a terrorist organization and is seen by Israel as responsible for numerous rocket attacks, suicide bombings, and other forms of violence directed against Israeli civilians and military targets.  

China vs Taiwan

China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve what it calls reunification. Tensions have run high, particularly as China has increased its military maneuvers near Taiwan. 

The United States and other countries have shown support for Taiwan, which could complicate any potential conflict. However, there is a strong global interest in maintaining stability in the region, and thus far, this has not escalated into a broader conflict.

Besides, the actual risk of Chinese military action against Taiwan remains low, as it has been observed that Beijing usually flexes military muscle only when high-level U.S. and Taiwanese officials meet face-to-face. 

Moreover, Xi is trying his utmost to play a larger role on the global stage, particularly as a peacemaker. As part of his efforts to promote peace in Ukraine, he has presented a 12-point peace plan. He has even invited French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission Chairwoman Ursula Von der Leyen to Beijing to discuss the ongoing war and China's future relationship with Europe.

At any rate, China is unlikely to move against Taiwan soon due to the unpredictable, costly, and humiliating risks of a Pyrrhic victory or defeat. Xi knows that Taiwan, backed by sophisticated and powerful US weapons, has been preparing for a possible Chinese invasion even longer than Ukraine, which, by itself, has prepared extensively for an all-out war with Russia.

Conclusion: Diplomacy, Economic Links, and the Possession Of Nuclear Weapons All Serve As Key Deterrents to the Onset of a Global Conflict.

World War III connotes a large, worldwide battle involving numerous states. While these crises are dangerous and might have far-reaching implications, they have not reached the size that could cause global war. The international community is typically eager to prevent such a disastrous end for humankind, and extensive diplomatic and political initiatives have been successful so far to manage and resolve crises.

The dynamics of international relations are complicated, and the danger of escalation exists at all times. However, the current global environment is also typified by linked economies and a largely shared objective and aspiration of avoiding large-scale conflict. Diplomacy, economic links, and the possession of nuclear weapons all serve as key deterrents to the onset of a global conflagration.

It is important to keep informed via credible news sources and to be aware that the situation might change. It is also critical not to leap to conclusions about the imminence of a global war. Behind the scenes, the international community continuously strives to prevent these crises from growing further.

References

Bremmer, I. (2023, April 13). Why China won’t invade Taiwan anytime soon. “Time”. https://time.com/6270599/china-invade-taiwan/

Grady, J. (2023, March 2). High cost of Taiwan invasion will dissuade China, Pentagon official says. “USNI News”. https://news.usni.org/2023/03/02/high-cost-of-taiwan-invasion-will-dissuade-china-pentagon-official-says

Margossian, M. (n.d.). Five reasons why Russia won’t start World War III. “Massachusetts Daily Collegian”. https://dailycollegian.com/2014/03/five-reasons-why-russia-wont-start-world-war-iii/

Nagel, J., & Golany, B. (2023, September 25). Will the Russia-Ukraine war lead to World War III? “Foundation for Defense of Democracies”. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/09/22/will-the-russia-ukraine-war-lead-to-world-war-iii/

Paranjape, M. R., & Paranjape, M. R. (2023, October 9). Off-centre | The invasion of Israel: Are we closer to WWIII? “Firstpost”. https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/off-centre-the-invasion-of-israel-are-we-closer-to-wwiii-13220782.html

T. (n.d.). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Why the conflict will not escalate into World War III. “The Trinity Tripod”. https://trinitytripod.com/opinion/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-two-important-reasons-why-the-conflict-will-not-escalate-into-world-war-iii/

Ullman, H.(2022, February 22). Reality check #10: China will not invade Taiwan. “Atlantic Council”. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/reality-check/reality-check-10-china-will-not-invade-taiwan/

“A Chinese invasion of Taiwan isn’t inevitable.” (n.d.). “Lowy Institute”. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/chinese-invasion-taiwan-isn-t-inevitable

“Israel-Hamas war: Which countries are calling for a ceasefire – and how is it different to a humanitarian pause?” (2023, November 3). “Sky News”. https://news.sky.com/story/israel-hamas-war-which-countries-are-calling-for-a-ceasefire-and-how-is-it-different-to-a-humanitarian-pause-12999373

 

The Tragic Christmas of 1944 in Bulakan, Bulacan

Writer’s note: This is a translation of the article “Kagimbal-Gimbal na Pasko” which this writer found on the Facebook page “Mga Laki sa Bulakan Bulacan.” It was written by “Admin Yeoj”, based on research by “Col. Bert Morelos.” I am from Bulakan, Bulacan. My grandfather and mother told me this story in my childhood. I believe it really happened.

As we explore the records of the past in Bulakan, Bulacan, a grave Christmas story emerges.

During the tumultuous period of World War II, on the evening of December 24th, 1944, the Church of Nuestra Senora Dela Asuncion was filled with parishioners eager to celebrate Christmas at the Misa Aguinaldo (midnight mass). 

Altar servers took their places, young girls dressed as angels awaited their cue, and the choir was ready to fill the air with hymns. The entire congregation was filled with anticipation for Father Emilio Gutierrez, the parish priest of Bulakan, to commence the service.

Fr. Emilio Gutierrez

However, the atmosphere shifted abruptly when thirty members of the Hukbalahap—the armed communist group that held sway in Bulakan—stormed into the church. Their objective was to arrest Father Gutierrez, a former chaplain of the Philippine Army, and a veteran who had bravely fought alongside Filipino-American forces in Corregidor and Bataan. The priest was under suspicion of being an American informant.

Upon confronting Father Gutierrez in the sacristy, the Hukbalahap insisted on his immediate capture. The priest, with a plea in his eyes, requested to first finish the Holy Mass, even if it meant abbreviating the ceremony. After a brief consultation, they acquiesced to his plea but kept a vigilant watch to ensure that he couldn’t escape.

As the church bells tolled, marking the commencement of the mass, the congregation, despite the looming threat, sang hymns with a resounding spirit. Father Gutierrez warmly wished everyone a "Merry Christmas" and, with deep emotion, went on to read the Gospel and deliver his sermon.

However, as time wore on, the Hukbalahap's patience waned. Mid-ceremony, they decided it was time to apprehend the priest. Their decision was resolute, and no pleas would sway them now. 

Fr.Gutierrez was taken by force from the altar, and he bestowed one final blessing upon his flock as he was led away. Fr. Gutierrez and his communist abductors walked down the church's center isle as the congregation watched, fearful and trembling.

The resulting grief among the gathered Bulakeños was profound. Tears flowed freely as the congregation, paralyzed by fear, mourned the loss of their cherished parish priest. Once the Hukbalahap had vanished into the night with their captive, the parishioners hurried home, haunted by the harrowing events.

The tragic conclusion to Father Gutierrez's tale transpired in the dense woods of Babangad, a sitio of Barrio San Nicolas.  When he was about to be killed, the caliber .45 aimed at him miraculously did not fire. In utter anger, the executioner repeatedly struck the priest's head with the malfunctioning pistol.

That Christmas morning, Bulakan, Bulacan bore witness to the death of God’s devout servant at the hands of its own. That Christmas Eve of 1944 is etched in Bulakan's history forever.